Recent Updates

  • US: New Residential Construction (Jun)
  • Turkey: Retail Sales (May); South Africa: CPI (Jun), Retail Trade Sales (May); Iraq: CPI (Jun); Kenya: Depository Corps Survey (Apr)
  • Germany: Manufacturing Orders Backlog, Foreign Trade (May)
  • Euro area: Investment Fund Statistics (May), Construction Output (May), Final HICP (Jun)
  • UK: CPI, RPI, PPI, Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (Jun)
  • Japan: Visitor Arrivals (Jun-Prelim)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

German Orders Head South
by Robert Brusca September 7, 2010

German orders rolled over in July after a string of strong gains that extend back to about January. The German orders recovery dates from March of 2009 and from that point there have been only four monthly declines in orders of which this month's drop is the largest.

Export orders dropped by 3.7 percent in July from June, undercut by a 6.1 percent decline from the 16-member Euro-Area, the report showed. Domestic sales fell 0.3 percent.

Orders for capital goods plunged declining for the second month in a row for the fist time since February of 2009.

Germany had been Europe's darling. Some are now saying how this orders drop is evidence that Germany cannot decouple from the global economy. Are we surprised? Germany has been engaged in nurturing export led growth while the world around it has been weakening. How on earth could it ever has sustained that trick? Unless the rest of they world picked up, Germany was bound to steer into a dead end for orders. Now it seems to have happened. It's hard to be surprised by this although it is interesting that he IFO survey has not yet tipped off this sort of weakness. The Zew financial experts have been more wary.

German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin
Real and SA % M/M % Saar
  Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Yr Ago QTR-2
Date
Total Orders -2.2% 3.6% -0.2% 4.6% 2.3% 17.6% -19.9% 0.4%
Foreign -3.7% 6.6% 0.2% 11.8% 5.7% 25.3% -24.8% 3.0%
Domestic -0.3% 0.1% -0.5% -2.7% -1.3% 9.6% -14.1% -2.3%
Real Sector Sales
MFG/Mining -0.9% -0.5% 3.1% 7.0% 3.5% 9.9% -17.0% -1.2%
  Consumer 0.6% -0.1% 1.3% 7.4% 3.6% 2.6% -7.8% 6.0%
  Cons Durables 3.0% -1.0% 5.6% 34.2% 15.8% 13.4% -18.3% 27.2%
  Cons Non-Durable 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7% -5.8% 2.5%
Captial Gds -3.2% -0.7% 5.2% 4.6% 2.3% 10.0% -21.6% -11.7%
Intermediate Gds 1.5% -0.6% 1.6% 10.1% 4.9% 14.6% -16.3% 9.8%
All MFG-Sales -0.9% -0.5% 3.1% 7.0% 3.5% 9.9% -16.9% -1.2%
close
large image