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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Gains Slow
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2010

Earlier, modest improvement in home prices recently lost some steam. Seasonally adjusted, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index gained 0.3% (4.2% y/y) in June following slightly stronger increases during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 3.5% y/y increase. Further, quarterly diminution in coming months is possible due to the expiration of the government's $8,000 home-buyer Federal tax credit. Nevertheless, prices were 5.0% higher than during the May 2009 low. For the narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index, June prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% (5.0% y/y).

The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During June the 12-month gain in prices was strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 14.3% y/y, in San Diego by 11.2%. Also, prices rose a sharp 10.7% in Minneapolis. Prices were up less in Los Angeles (9.2%), Washington D.C. (7.3%), and Phoenix (6.0%). Prices also rose by 3.3% in Boston but quarterly gains have decelerated as they have elsewhere around the country. In Denver (1.7%) and Dallas (1.1%) price gains already have decelerated sharply from last year. Price increases were registered in Miami (1.1%), Detroit (0.8% y/y) and New York (0.2%) following earlier sharp declines. Widespread, though reduced, price declines continued in Charlotte (-2.8%), Seattle (-1.8%) and Tampa (-1.6%). 

The Case-Shiller home price series are value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.

American Dream or American Obsession? The Economic Benefits and Costs of Homeownership from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) June M/M May M/M April M/M June Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
20 City Composite Index 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 4.2% -13.3% -15.7% -3.8%
  Regional Indicators
  Atlanta 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.9 -11.6 -8.5 0.7
  Boston -0.1 0.3 0.6 3.3 -4.9 -5.7 -4.0
  Chicago 1.2 0.4 1.1 -0.1 -14.2 -10.0 -1.0
  Charlotte -0.2 -0.8 0.6 -2.8 -8.2 -1.9 5.7
  Dallas -0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 -2.3 -3.3 0.5
  Denver -1.0 -0.3 0.6 1.7 -2.8 -4.9 -1.7
  Los Angeles 0.0 0.7 0.7 9.2 -15.4 -24.2 -5.2
  Miami 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -22.0 -26.6 -5.9
  Minneapolis 1.0 1.2 2.7 10.7 -15.7 -14.3 -3.7
  New York 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -9.8 -7.4 -2.8
  San Francisco -0.6 0.7 1.1 14.3 -18.4 -24.3 -4.5
  Tampa -0.2 0.3 0.3 -1.6 -18.8 -19.2 -7.6
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