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Economy in Brief

EMU Orders Surge in May...Big Surprise
by Robert Brusca July 22, 2010

In May orders in the EMU surges by 3.8% a sharp acceleration from May's rise of 0.6%. With this surge the 3-, 6- and 12-month rates of growth are held high and steady at the extremely high pace of above 23% with the three-month growth rate surging to 43%. Both domestic and foreign orders are holding to high rates of growth as well with the foreign orders series being the stronger of the two at nearly twice the pace of domestic orders except over three-months where domestic orders have ramped up their rate of growth sharply to exceed the pace for foreign orders.

Germany and France, two of the larger EMU countries, showed weakness in orders in May. That explains the surprise in the headline. The May orders strength occurred among the smaller Euro-Area nations although orders in Italy did pop in May. Over three-months both Germany and Italy are reporting an orders growth rate close to the EMU overall pace and this is despite a surge in Italy's orders in May and despite a decline in Germany's also in May.

Clearly there is some shifting around of growth in the Euro-Area. But these are far stronger figures than had been expected. The report this month suggests that there may be a revival domestically in some of the smaller EMU nations. That would be good news indeed.

Selected Euro-Area and UK Industrial Orders
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo May-10 Apr-10 May-10 Apr-10 May-10 Apr-10
Euro-Area Detail May
10
Apr
10
Mar
10
3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo
MFG Orders 3.8% 0.6% 4.9% 43.7% 42.1% 23.5% 23.5% 24.6% 20.5%
MFG Sales 5.2% -1.9% 3.0% 27.5% 9.0% 19.0% 10.6% 14.0% 8.0%
  Consumer 3.5% -2.4% 1.9% 12.2% -2.7% 7.9% 3.5% 4.6% -0.8%
  Capital 5.8% -3.4% 3.4% 24.9% 1.0% 15.7% 2.8% 10.7% 5.0%
 Intermediate 2.9% 0.9% 6.0% 46.4% 35.5% 15.9% 14.4% 17.3% 13.4%
Memo:MFG
 E-13 Domestic MFG orders 2.9% 0.9% 6.0% 46.4% 35.5% 15.9% 14.4% 17.3% 13.4%
 E-13 Foreign MFG orders 5.7% 0.7% 4.7% 54.1% 53.0% 33.8% 30.2% 33.5% 27.4%
Countries: May
10
Apr
10
Mar
10
3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo
 Germany (MFG): -0.2% 3.7% 5.9% 44.5% 48.6% 30.3% 41.4% 28.0% 33.1%
 France(Ind): -0.6% -3.1% 6.2% 9.7% 7.1% 10.6% 13.5% 7.2% 8.7%
  Italy (Ind): 3.2% 4.8% 1.3% 43.5% 26.1% 25.5% 25.4% 22.4% 20.5%
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