Recent Updates

  • China: 70-City Property Prices (Nov)
  • Serbia: Labor Cost Index (Q3); CPI (NOV)
  • Czech Republic: Mortgage Loans (Q3)
  • US: IP & Capacity Utilization, Advance Retail Sales (Nov), ECEC (Q3)
  • US: Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Nov)
  • Albania: Wage Indexes (Q3); Production Index (Q3)
  • Canada: National Balance Sheet & Flow of Funds (Q3)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

EU Sentiment Falls; EMU Sentiment Edges Higher
by Robert Brusca June 29, 2010

Sentiment among the Big Five EU countries saw improvements in three of those five. Set backs in June were experienced in the UK and in France. For France its the second drop in a row. After seeing drops in four of six of the largest economies in May in the wake of the Greek crisis June reflects a strong and largely unexpected bounce back.

Still German has the best sentiment among EU/EMU members with its sentiment gauge in the 69th percentile of its queue of values since Mid 1989. The UK ranks second best with a standing in the 39th percentile of its queue. Spains reading stands in the 17th percentile of its historic queue.

By economic measures the EU readings are weak across the board. The retailing and industrial measures are relatively the best with each standing in the 57th percentile of their respective queues.

The percentile of range readings are all higher than the percentile of queue measures. But the queue ranking percentiles are the better measure at this point because they place the current readings among all reading not just as a percentile between the highs and lows.

On balance the rebound in the EMU measure of sentiment surprised the market but the broader EU measure did slip. Europe is still on unsteady footing.

EU Sectors and Country level Overall Sentiment
EU Jun
10
May
10
Apr
10
Mar
10
%tile Rank Max Min Range Mean By
Queue
rank%
Overall Index 100.1 100.2 101.9 99.8 68.2 142 115 68 47 100 43.4%
Industrial -6 -5 -7 -10 71.7 108 7 -39 46 -8 57.0%
Consumer Confid(e) -17 -15 -12 -14 44.1 207 2 -32 34 -11 17.5%
Retail -5 -4 0 -4 64.5 107 6 -25 31 -6 57.4%
Construction -32 -30 -28 -29 21.7 202 4 -42 46 -18 19.5%
Services 4 3 4 1 55.6 114 32 -31 63 12 28.8%
%M/M Jun
10
Based on Level Level  
EMU 0.3% -2.2% 2.8% 98.7 61.5 149 116 71 46 100 40.6%
Germany 0.4% 1.1% 4.3% 106.2 68.0 77 121 75 46 100 69.3%
France -2.3% -3.5% 2.0% 96.6 50.3 169 119 74 44 100 32.7%
Italy 1.5% -3.9% 1.5% 97.2 53.5 162 120 71 50 100 35.5%
Spain 2.6% -4.3% 1.2% 90.9 43.0 208 116 72 44 100 17.1%
Memo:UK -2.9% 0.7% 0.8% 99.4 68.3 151 115 65 50 100 39.8%
All since Feb 1989 251 -Count Services: 160 -Count
Sentiment is an index, sector readings are net balance diffusion measures; Confid estimated
close
large image