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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: Job Growth Resumes Led By The Service & Factory Sectors
by Tom Moeller May 5, 2010

Positive growth in the number of jobs has returned. The latest report from the payroll processor ADP, in their National Employment Report, indicated that private nonfarm payroll levels rose in April by 32,000, the third consecutive month of increase. The gain roughly matched Consensus expectations. Earlier data were slightly revised.

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report April payroll employment this Friday. For comparison, the March increase of 19,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a rise of 123,000 jobs in the BLS measure of private sector payrolls. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

ADP reported that private service-producing industry employment rose for the third consecutive month with a gain of 50,000 (-0.8% y/y). Small-sized payrolls grew 25,000 (-0.6% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls grew 20,000 (-0.9% y/y). These increases were accompanied by a modest 5,000 increase (-1.5% y/y) in large service producing payrolls.

Though declines in the goods producing sector have lessened, employment nevertheless fell another 18,000 during April (-7.4% y/y). The three-month annual rate of change eased to -2.0% versus -17.1% one year ago. In the manufacturing sector alone, however, payrolls rose 29,000 (-4.9% y/y). The three-month change of 1.3% was the first positive figure since early-2006. Large goods producing payrolls increased 9,000 (-7.6% y/y), the first positive change in more than two years. Small-sized payrolls fell 24,000 (-8.4% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls fell 3,000 (-6.5% y/y).

ADP National Employment Report April March February Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) 32 19 3 2.0% -4.9% -0.7% 1.1%
   Small Payroll (1-49) 1 4 -10 -1.7 -4.1 -0.1 1.8
   Medium Payroll (50-499) 17 12 17 -2.0 -5.7 -0.9 1.0
   Large Payroll (>500) 14 3 -4 -2.8 -5.6 -1.8 -0.2
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