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Economy in Brief

EMU PPI Prices Show Downward Pressures Unwinding
by Robert Brusca May 04, 2010

Pressure on the Euro-Area PPI remained in force in March as the price index continues to show Yr/Yr drops. Still the 6-month index is up at a 0.4% rate and the 3-Mo index is up at a 4.1% pace. For manufacturing the same trends are in play but with accelerated rates of growth.

Excluding energy prices both France and Germany show manufactured prices that are transitioning to positive growth rates for prices over three months or longer. Both series show a gradual acceleration in prices. Headline prices accelerate for all large EMU/EU countries in the table. Only Germany is still showing price drops even over three months for headline prices (excluding construction).

Sector prices also how an acceleration (or reduced deceleration, if you prefer) is in motion. These trends are also consistent with the notion that aggregate demand is picking up since at some point very weak prices indicate not just pricing and cost trends but demand deficiencies. That part of the weak price picture appears to be going away. And that is consistent with the better growth metrics we have been seeing in the Zone recently.

Euro-Area and UK PPI Trends
  M/M Saar
Euro-Area Mar-10 Feb-10 3-Mo 6-MO Yr/Yr Y/Y Yr Ago
TotalxConstruct 0.3% -0.1% 4.1% 0.4% -6.6% 6.1%
Capital Gds 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.8% -0.7% 2.8%
Consurmer Gds -0.3% -0.1% -1.1% -0.8% -2.8% 2.8%
Intermediate&Cap Gds -0.1% 0.5% 3.3% 0.5% -6.5% 4.1%
MFG 0.3% 0.0% 5.2% 2.4% -5.2% 3.6%
Germany 0.2% -0.2% -5.2% -6.1% -7.5% 7.8%
  Gy ExEnergy 0.2% 0.4% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% -1.4%
France:Tot 1.0% -0.2% 6.5% 2.7% -6.6% 4.9%
  Fr ExF&Energy 0.3% 0.0% 1.5% -0.4% -3.4% 3.3%
Italy 0.3% 0.3% 5.9% 1.2% -6.1% 4.7%
UK 1.4% 0.4% 19.0% 8.6% -2.7% 14.6%
Euro-Area Harmonized PPI ex construction
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