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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
by Tom Moeller March 4, 2010
Today's
Labor Department report indicated that initial claims for jobless
insurance fell 29,000 last week to 469,000 from an upwardly revised
498,000 during the prior week. Claims rose slightly for the full month
but remained down from the recession peak of 674,000 hit last March.
Moreover, claims remained near the lowest level since January 2009. The
weekly decline in claims slightly exceeded Consensus expectations for a
drop to 475,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims slipped
to 470,750.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell to a new cycle-low and were down by one-third since late-June. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to a cycle low of 4,575,750. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance dropped sharply to another cycle low of 178,469. They were down by two-thirds from a peak of 597,688 reached in November.
The insured rate of unemployment slipped to 3.5% from an upwardly revised 3.6% during the prior week. The rate reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years, there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 14 were in Alaska (7.4% percent), Oregon (6.4), Idaho (6.3), Montana (6.3), Wisconsin (6.2), Michigan (5.8), Nevada (5.7), Pennsylvania (6.4), and North Carolina (5.4). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (2.3), Texas (2.4), Florida (3.2), Georgia (3.4), Mississippi (3.6), Wyoming (3.7), Ohio (3.8), Maryland (3.9), Indiana (4.0), New York (4.1) and Maine (4.4). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
Changes in the Aggregate Labor Force Participation Rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 2/27/10 | 2/20/10 | 2/13/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 469 | 498 | 474 | -27.1% | 573 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,500 | 4,634 | -11.3% | 5,835 | 3,345 | 2,552 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 (3/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
