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Economy in Brief

Industrial Trends In UK Continue Turning Higher
by Robert Brusca February 18, 2010

Industrial orders in the UK rose to a reading of -36 in February from -39 marking their best result Since December 2008. The plus-seven reading for expected output volume is the best reading since March of 2008.

Orders reside in the 20th percentile of their range a still-low standing. But export orders stand above the mid point of their range at a percentile of 51.6%. Similarly expected output volume is in the 52nd percentile of its range and average prices expected are in the top 35% of their range. The ranges are from early 1989 to date.

Two observations from these results lead us to the conclusion first, that conditions are still severely impacted. Second, expectations are in place that foresee or expect that the economy is headed for normalcy. Having the three-month outlook variables above their range mid-point is a sign that things are expected to get back to normal in ‘three-months or so.’ Yet the still very weak readings for overall and export orders remind us that current conditions still are under a lot of stress.

The UK industrial sector is making progress. Elsewhere the housing sector is recovering and the budget deficit is ballooning. The UK is making progress but still has some great challenges. For now the news is that the progress continues.

UK Industrial Volume Data CBI Survey
Reported: Feb
12MO Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
Total Orders -36 -39 -42 -45 -51 -52 34% 9 -59 68
  Export Orders -23 -33 -41 -37 -46 -45 53% 3 -52 55
Stocks:FinGds 12 13 15 20 10 21 42% 31 -2 33
Looking ahead
Output Volume:Nxt 3M 7 4 -7 4 4 -16 72% 28 -48 76
Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m 8 -6 -7 -5 -4 -10 52% 34 -20 54
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