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Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs Make Strong Advances
by Robert Brusca February 5, 2010

The six-month progressions show that the OECD LEIs are getting progressively stronger. Over 12-months growth rates are positive; annualized rates accelerate over six months but growth rates backed off over three months.

The OECD and its main countries are showing consistent and strong growth rates over the most recent six months.

The 7% to 10% growth rates over 12-months are in excess of what we have seen in the past two recoveries. Japan is still lagging in this cycle with a 12-month gain of only 3.5%. But the e-Zone is up by 9.7% and the US indicator is up by 7.3% over 12 months. Japan is showing strong growth in its LEI over three-months.

The OECD series still seems to endorse the idea of a recovery that will gain momentum and become strong.

OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators
Growth progression-SAAR
  3Mos 6Mos 12mos Yr-Ago
OECD 9.4% 11.9% 8.3% -10.8%
OECD7 9.8% 12.5% 7.8% -11.6%
OECD.Ezone 9.5% 12.3% 9.7% -11.6%
OECD.Japan 10.3% 11.4% 3.5% -11.4%
OECD US 10.1% 12.4% 7.3% -11.5%
Six Month Readings at 6-Mo Intervals:
  Recent six 6Mo Ago 12Mo Ago 18MO Ago
OECD 11.9% 4.7% -15.9% -5.3%
OECD7 12.5% 3.2% -17.3% -5.5%
OECD.Eur 12.3% 7.1% -15.4% -7.7%
OECD.Japan 11.4% -3.9% -19.3% -2.8%
OECD US 12.4% 2.4% -17.9% -4.5%
Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED
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