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Economy in Brief

Indonesia Avoids Recession
by Louise Curley January 4, 2010

While Indonesia has had extensive damage from earthquakes, it has so far escaped a recession.  The closest it has come was the fourth quarter of 2008 when real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of only 0.80%.  Subsequent increases have been 3.58% in the first quarter of 2009, 5.49% in the second and 6.64 in the third quarter. The annual rates of increase in real GDP over the past six years are shown in the first chart.

Today, the consumer price index for December was released. Inflation continues to be well behaved although there has been a slight increase in the last two months.  The rate of inflation as measured by the year to year increase in the seasonally unadjusted consumer price index was 2.78% down from 11.06% in December of 2008.  The course of inflation in Indonesia is shown in the second chart.

Also released today were Indonesia's exports, imports and balance of trade.  There has been a rising trend in the balance of trade from the 640 million USD deficit in October,2008.  Exports at 11,562 million USD are below the peak level of 12,499 million USD reached in June of 2008 and imports at 9,563 million USD are well below the peak of 12,142 million USD reached  in July 2008.  The third chart shows exports, imports and the balance of trade over the past six years.

INDONESIA Q4
09
Q3
09
Q2
09
Q1
09
Q4
08
Q3
08
Q2
08
Q1
08
 
Real Gross Domestic Product
Q/Q Annual Rate of Change in Real GDP  (%) -- 6.64 5.49 3.58 0.80 6.08 7.50 6.75  
  Dec
09
Nov
09
Oct
09
Sep
09
Aug
09
Jul
09 
Jun
09
May
09
Apr
09
CPI Y/Y % Change (%) 2.78 2.41 2.57 2.83 2.75 2.71 3.65 6.04 7.31
Trade Dec
09
Nov
09
Oct
09
Sep
09
Aug
09
Jul
09 
Jun
09
May
09
Apr
09
Exports  (Millions US $) -- 11562 12108 9588 10257 9260 9135 8756 8872
Imports (Millions US $) -- 9563 9903 8288 8963 8161 7645 7165 6512
Balance (Millions US $) -- 1999 2205 1308 1294 1099 1490 1591 2362
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