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- South Africa: Tourism & Migration, Export & Import Price Index (Feb), PPI (Mar); Kenya: GDP (2017)
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Economy in Brief
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller December 22, 2009
The second
revision to 3Q U.S. real GDP lowered growth again, this time to 2.2%
(AR) from last month's report of 2.9% growth. The revised figure
compares to the advance report of 3.5% growth and was contrary to
expectations for an improvement to 2.8%. Still, growth last quarter was
the first positive figure since 4Q 2007. Estimates of economic growth
this quarter recently have been rising to roughly 4.0%.
The
largest surprise in the revision was that domestic final demand growth
was again revised down, to 2.3% from 2.7%. On the fixed-investment
side, business fixed investment fell at an increased 5.9% (-19.6% y/y)
rate. The quarterly rise in residential spending was reduced to 18.9%
(-18.9% y/y) and government investment grew at a reduced 2.7% rate
(2.0% y/y). Real PCE growth was little changed at 2.8% (-0.2% y/y).
Another
surprise in the figures was
that the 3Q contribution to GDP growth from inventories was revised
lower to 0.7 percentage points. Nevertheless, the 3Q addition followed
subtractions of 1.4 and 2.4 percentage points during the prior two
quarters, and was just the second positive contribution to GDP growth
in two years.
Accompanying the GDP figure was a little-revised estimate that 3Q corporate profits rose 10.8% versus 2Q. That was the third consecutive quarterly increase and diminished the y/y change to -6.6% from -25.1% at its worst in 4Q' 08. Lower market interest rates lifted earnings in the financial sector by more than one-third (20.5% y/y) and they tripled from year-end '08. Earnings from the rest of the world increased 7.3% (-18.6% y/y) while the end of the recession raised domestic nonfinancial profits by an upwardly revised 4.2% (-10.6% y/y) for the second quarterly increase.
Deterioration
in the foreign trade deficit subtracted an unrevised 0.8 percentage
points from 3Q GDP growth following an advance estimate of a
0.5% subtraction. Imports grew 21.3% (-14.0% y/y) and the gain in
exports also was little-revised at 17.8% (-10.7% y/y).
The gain in the GDP price deflator was lowered slightly to 0.4%. The PCE price index was ticked lower to 2.6% (-0.7% y/y) and the rise in the overall domestic final sales price index was brought down to 1.4% (-1.0% y/y).
The U.S. National Income & Product Account data are available in Haver's USECON and the USNA databases.
Chained 2005$, % AR | 3Q '09 Final | 3Q '09 Preliminary | 3Q '09 Advance | 2Q '09 | 1Q '09 | 2Q Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | -0.7 | -6.4 | -2.6 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
Inventory Effect | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -1.4 | -2.4 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
Final Sales | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | -4.1 | -1.7 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
Foreign Trade Effect | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
Domestic Final Demand | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | -0.9 | -6.4 | -2.5 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
Chained GDP Price Index | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 |