Recent Updates

  • Canada: Real Wholesale Trade data have been replaced, new series will be added shortly
  • US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
  • Turkey: Consumer Confidence (Jul); Nigeria: CPI (Jun); South Africa: Tourism & Migration (May), Midyear Popoulation Estimate (2018), Government Bond Holdings (Jun); Lebanon: CPI (Jun); Mozambique: Bank Credit by Sector (May)
  • Germany: Wages & Earnings, Public Finance, Loans & Deposits (May)
  • Denmark: Government Finance and Debt (Jun), Consumer
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

UK Consumer Confidence Continues Backtrack
by Robert Brusca December 18, 2009

Consumer Confidence in the UK according to GFK has dropped again in December marking a two-month backtrack in the index. The current household financial situation is in the bottom 9 percentile of its range but the major purchase index is in the 71st percentile of its two year range and 44th percentile of its broader range.

Over the past 12 months the percentile ratings were all below the 50th percentile and the broad ranges are lower, at or near in the bottom 25th percentile of their respective ranges.

The outlook components deteriorated across the board in December except that savings improved and the CPI gauge rose. However, upper income category survey respondents registered an improved reading in December as the lower income respondents index fell by a sharp five points.

Although the GFK index has risen strongly from its very low recession depths, the new drop is significant and encompasses two months of backtracking, not just one. It is not the kind of news that we have been looking for but it fits with the sporadic and conflicted reports we continue to get out of the UK economy whose readings seem to run more hot and cold and with more erratic behavior than anywhere else. Perhaps that is not surprising since the financial crisis has been severe the UK which was more dependent on its financial sector than any other country or region.

GFK Consumer Survey
          % of 2Yr % of 10Yr
  Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Range Range
Consumer Confidence -19 -17 -13 -16 64.5% 50.0%
Current
Household Fin Sit 15 15 19 18 9.1% 9.1%
Major Purchases -16 -19 -12 -15 71.1% 44.3%
Last 12 Months
Household Fin Sit -14 -14 -12 -13 27.3% 25.0%
General Econ Sit -61 -59 -53 -63 40.4% 30.4%
CPI 58 60 64 67 0.0% 24.6%
Savings -8 -10 -6 -5 27.0% 25.4%
 
Next 12-Months
Household Fin Sit 3 5 6 5 67.7% 65.6%
General Econ Sit -6 3 3 4 82.1% 82.1%
Unemployment 45 41 46 46 34.0% 49.2%
Major Purchases -30 -28 -27 -28 45.5% 40.0%
Savings 4 0 6 0 30.4% 26.9%
CPI 60 56 57 58 39.2% 39.2%
 
By Income
Lower -26 -21 -23 -23 61.3% 44.2%
Upper -7 -8 -8 -12 86.2% 65.8%
close
large image