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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Robert Brusca December 10, 2009
Machinery orders are a volatile measure almost by design.
Because of the lumpy nature and large scope of some projects it is hard
to get a reliable reading on this series. Looking at core orders is one
way to stabilize the signal. This measure excludes the most volatile
components of the order series. In October core orders fell, but that
was after rising by a sharp 10.5% in December. The sequential growth
rate of orders is on a strong upswing despite this month’s set back.
The overall orders measure that includes those large and lumpy
projects also is improving strongly. For once the trends of the two
series are in agreement even if the monthly numbers are going in
different directions.
The chart also shows domestic Vs foreign machinery orders.
While both series are showing some rise it is the foreign orders that
are doing most of the improvement. Japan like Germany is benefitting
more from demand outside of its country than from the domestic demand
within.
Japan Machinery Orders | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
m/m % | Saar % | ||||||
SA | Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Aug-09 | 3-Mos | 6-Mos | 12-Mos | 12-Mo Ago |
Total | 3.2% | 6.0% | -1.9% | 32.7% | 43.3% | -12.3% | -27.4% |
Core Orders* | -4.5% | 10.5% | 0.5% | 26.2% | 4.6% | -21.1% | -15.7% |
Total Orders | |||||||
Foreign Demand | 15.3% | 25.9% | -15.7% | 124.5% | 245.9% | -4.7% | -44.4% |
Domestic demand | -3.0% | -5.4% | 7.1% | -7.1% | -4.6% | -15.3% | -14.1% |
* Excl ships and electric power |