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Economy in Brief

German Retail Sales Rise But Amass No Momentum
by Robert Brusca December 1, 2009

German retail sales rose in October, reversing a drop in September, but sales continue to show negative momentum. The sequential nominal rates of growth from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months all are clustered around a minus 3% growth rate. For real retail sales the sequential growth rates show a move to more weakness despite the bump up in sales in October. Real retail sales sequential growth rates are getting to be more severe negative numbers.

Only clothing and footwear sales are showing any kind of strength. Footwear and clothing sales are now up Yr/Yr along with car registrations. Government programs have skewed spending toward car purchases by offering incentives. Clothing and footwear are just beginning to pick up. Still there is nothing upbeat about the German consumer in this report. The rise in spending in October sure beats a drop. But trends are not reversed or even blunted by this rise after two months of steep drops.

German Real and Nominal Retail Sales QTR
 Nominal Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 3-MO 6-MO 12-MO YrAgo Saar
Retaill Ex auto 0.6% -0.5% -0.9% -3.2% -3.3% -2.5% 2.0% -0.2%
MV and Parts 0.5% -0.2% -1.5% -4.8% -3.0% -1.7% 0.2% -0.8%
Food Bev & Tobacco -1.6% -3.4% 3.7% -6.0% -7.0% -5.0% 1.4% -15.4%
Clothing footwear 8.5% 2.9% -7.4% 14.5% 9.9% 7.1% 1.6% 56.6%
Car Registrations (units) -0.1% -2.7% -9.5% -40.1% -31.4% 24.0% -8.3% 0.0%
Retail Ex auto 0.5% -0.2% -1.5% -4.8% -3.0% -1.7% 0.2% -0.8%
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