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Economy in Brief

Case-Shiller Home Price Gains Slow After Three Months Of Strength
by Tom Moeller November 24, 2009

The rise in home prices slowed with the recent plateau in home sales. The September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Composite Index of twenty metro-markets edged up 0.3% after an average 1.0% rise during each of the prior three months. The latest increase lessened the y/y decline to 9.4% from its worst of -19.0% in January. Consensus expectations had been for a y/y decline of 9.1% for March. In addition, prices were down by nearly one-third since the peak in May 2006. Not seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.3% during September after a 1.2% August increase.

The Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 10 metropolitan areas, which has a longer history and dates back to 1987, also firmed last month by 1.0% (-10.7% y/y). This measure also is down by nearly one-third since the 2006 peak.

The Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. cities and their surrounding areas is value-weighted. A greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes and the series dates back only to 2001. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database. The latest press release is available here . An overview of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found here.ยท Home prices in some areas of the country have firmed lately though they remain down year-to-year.

Prices in Chicago were quite firm for the third straight month and rose 1.1% (-10.7% y/y) and in San Francisco prices have been strong for five months (-7.9% y/y). In San Diego prices also were up solidly for the fourth month (-5.7% y/y) and prices in Minneapolis were quite strong for the last four months. However, they remain off 11.3% from one year ago. In Phoenix prices rose for the fourth straight month (-21.9% y/y). In Los Angeles home prices also were stronger and rose for the fourth month (-9.0% y/y).

The monthly S&P Case Shiller Home Price data can be found in Haver's USECON database and the regional data is available in the REGIONAL database.

Do Macroeconomic Announcements Move Inflation Forecasts? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100) September m/m August m/m July m/m Sept. y/y 2008 2007 2006
20 City Composite Index 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% -9.4% -15.7% -3.8% 7.6%
  Regional Indicators
     Atlanta 0.5 0.7 1.6 -9.4 -8.5 0.7 4.3
     Boston -0.2 1.0 0.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.0 -1.8
     Chicago 1.1 1.3 2.0 -10.7 -10.0 -1.0 6.6
     Dallas -0.3 0.0 0.8 -1.2 -3.3 0.5 3.2
     Denver 0.2 0.6 0.6 -1.2 -4.9 -1.7 2.1
     Los Angeles 0.7 1.2 1.2 -9.0 -24.2 -5.2 11.6
     New York -0.2 0.3 0.9 -9.0 -7.4 -2.8 7.5
     San Francisco 1.7 2.5 3.0 -7.9 -24.3 -4.5 4.5
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