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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 19, 2009
Layoffs from the U.S. workforce held steady last week at the
recent low. That's according to the Labor Department which reported
that initial claims for unemployment insurance equaled the prior week's
upwardly revised level of 505,000. Claims have not been lower since the
first week of January and have fallen sharply from the peak reached in
March of 674,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell to
514,000 and the latest weekly figure about matched Consensus
expectations.
The latest figure covers the survey week for November nonfarm
payrolls and claims fell 26,000 (4.9%) from the October period. During
the last ten years there has been a negative 85% correlation between
level of initial claims for jobless insurance the m/m change in nonfarm
payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell 39,000 to their lowest level since mid-March. The decline reflects the improved job market but may also be a function of the exhaustion of benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell modestly to 5,711,500 and have fallen 18.7% from their late-June peak. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance rose fell modestly w/w but averaged 543,645 last month versus 456,982 during September.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 4.3% and
matched its lowest since late-March. The rate reached a high of 5.2%
during late-June. During the last ten years, there has been a 93%
correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the
overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 31 were in Puerto Rico (6.1%), Oregon (5.5), Nevada (5.2), California (5.0), Alaska (5.0), Arkansas (4.9), Wisconsin (4.9), Pennsylvania (4.8), Michigan (4.8), North Carolina (4.6), and South Carolina (4.6). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in North Dakota (1.1%), South Dakota (1.2), Virginia (2.0), Texas (2.5), Maine (2.6), Wyoming (2.8), Ohio (3.1), Maryland (3.1), New York (3.4), Mississippi (3.6) and Florida (3.7).
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/14/09 | 11/07/09 | 10/31/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 505 | 505 | 514 | -5.3% | 420 | 321 | 313 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 5,611 | 5,650 | 39.5% | 3,342 | 2,552 | 2,459 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.1(11/2008) | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |