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Economy in Brief

Improved Business Sentiment In France,Industrial Production Increases In Germany, Romania And Slovakia Falters In Turkey
by Louise Curley November 09, 2009

In the news today are reports of French business sentiment and industrial production in Germany, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey.

French business sentiment continues to improve.   From the low point of 66.96 reached in December of last year, the Bank of France's Business Sentiment Indicator has risen in each subsequent month and in October was up to 94.80, just 5.20 points below 100, its long term average.  An important factor in the improvement in sentiment has been the increase in new orders--the total and foreign.  The first chart shows the percent balances between those experiencing an increase in total and foreign new orders over those experiencing a decline.  In October, the excess of those experiencing an increase in foreign new orders over those experiencing a decline was 4.85%, while the excess for total orders was 10.9% as shown in the first chart.

The most important report on industrial production released today is that for Germany and it is encouraging.  Industrial production in Germany is up for the second month. While developments in Germany, as the largest economy in Europe, overshadow those in the smaller and less developed economies of Eastern Europe and the Middle East, it is encouraging to see that the representatives of the latter groups in today's news are making strong percentage gains in industrial production.  The month to month changes in production in the emerging countries tend to be volatile even on a seasonally adjusted basis.  The  picture becomes clearer when we aggregate the date on a quarterly basis as can be seen in a comparison of the second and third charts.

  Oct 09 Sep 09 Oct 08 M/M CHG Y/Y CHG 2008  2007 2006
French Business Sentiment Indicator  (LTA=100) 94.8 90.2 78.0 2.1 26.6 90.6 107 105.9
Total New Orders % balance 10.90 -1.54 -35.51 12.44 46.41 -9.18 10.84 12.28
Foreign New Order % balance 4.78 1.21 -33.48 3.57 38.26 -10.04 11.15 12.59
Industrial Production (2005=100) Sep 09 Aug 09 Sep 08 M/M CHG Y/Y CHG 2008  2007 2006
Germany 97.0 -4.6 111.5 2.75 -12.83 111.5 111.6 105.4
Romania 118.4 116.8 123.3 1.37 -3.97 123.5 120.6 109.6
Slovakia 127.7 121.1 135.3 5.15 -5.62 134.1 130.4 112.1
Turkey 101.2 106.3 110.3 -4.80 -8.25 114.3 115.3 107.8
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