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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
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U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley November 3, 2009
Brazilian industrial production increased 0.75% to 119.2
(2002=100) in September from 118.3 in August, a little short of
expectations, but still on the upward trend that began in January. The
three major marketing groups--capital goods, intermediate goods and
consumer goods--have all recovered from their falls in December as can
be seen in the first chart. The decline in capital goods was especially
severe and the recovery equally sharp.
Industrial production is a good proxy for Brazilian GDP. Brazil reports real GDP on an index basis with 1995=100. We rebased the Industrial production index to 1995=100 and aggregated the monthly figures to quarterly. The second chart compares this index with the index of real GDP. The correlation between the two series is strong at .97. In the third quarter, industrial production increased 4.1%. A 3.9% increase in industrial production was associated with a 1.9% increase in real GDP. If the relationship between industrial production and real GDP holds, Brazil's real GDP should show another roughly 2% rise in GDP in the third quarter.
BRAZIL | Sep 09 | Aug 09 | Sep 08 | M/M % | Y/Y % | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Industrial Production (2002=100) as reported | 109.2 | 118.3 | 129.7 | 0.75 | -8.1 | 125.3 | 121.8 | 115.0 |
Industrial Production (1995=100) | 136.2 | 135.2 | 148.3 | 0.75 | -8.1 | 143.2 | 139.2 | 131.5 |
Q3 09 | Q2 09 | Q1 09 | Q4 08 | Q3 08 | Q2 08 | Q1 08 | ||
Real GDP (1995=100) | 145.3 | 142.7 | 146.0 | 149.0 | 147.1 | 144.9 | ||
Industrial Production (1995=100) | 135.1 | 129.8 | 124.9 | 133.8 | 148.2 | 146.3 | 144.7 |