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Economy in Brief

EU Indices Jump in October
by Tom Moeller October 29, 2009

The EU Commission indices made their eight largest advance Since October 1988 for the EU region as a whole. This boosted the overall index for the EU to the 46th percentile of range much closer to its midpoint but still 14% below its average level for the same period.

Surprisingly in relative terms it is the consumer that is boosting the region the most. Consumer confidence stands at the 50% mark of its range. Construction lags the most of all sectors, standing in the 17th percentile of its range followed by services that languish in the 31st percentile of their range. Both retailing and the industrial sector are in their respective 41st percentiles.

As to countries, the large countries are clustered closely together in their respective range readings. Spain is the weakest in the 38th percentile of its range. Compared to the UK in the 47th range percentile; among EMU members Italy is the relative strongest in its 42nd percentile leaving a small gap between the best reading and the worst among large countries in the e-Zone.

Still if we look at the rankings by queue the results are much weaker. The range ranking positions the current reading between the highest and lowest range values. The queue orders the various readings by component or country depending on its application. It ranks them presenting the result as a percentage (100 is highest). The queue percentiles show that while the various indicators have come sharply up from their lows and some although some are closing in on range midpoints the ranked readings are still no where near normal.

The overall EU reading that stands in the 46th percentile of its range also stands in the 11th percentile of its queue – a terribly low standing. The real message here is that yes there is a significant recovery from the lows in gear but the current levels of the indices are still well below normal.

While the EU and EMU regions are making progress there is still a very long way to go.

EU Sectors and Country level Overall Sentiment
EU Oct
09
Sep
09
Aug
09
Jul
09
Percen
-tile
Rank Max Min Range Mean By Queue
Rank%
Overall Index 86 82.6 81 75 46.0 222 116 60 56 99 11.6%
Industrial -20 -24 -26 -30 41.3 225 7 -39 46 -8 10.4%
Consumer Confidence -15 -17 -20 -21 50.0 188 2 -32 34 -11 25.1%
Retail Trade -12 -11 -12 -14 41.9 215 6 -25 31 -6 14.3%
Construction -34 -35 -36 -37 17.4 216 4 -42 46 -17 13.9%
Services -11 -11 -11 -19 31.7 143 32 -31 63 13 7.1%
    %m/m   Oct
09
Based on Level Level  
EMU 4.1% 2.5% 6.3% 86.2 41.1 222 117 65 53 100 11.6%
Germany 3.9% 1.7% 6.3% 90.8 38.0 201 121 72 49 100 19.9%
France 3.4% 5.9% 2.3% 91.1 40.9 187 119 72 47 100 25.5%
Italy 4.4% -1.5% 4.5% 90.0 42.7 214 121 67 54 100 14.7%
Spain 2.4% -1.5% 3.7% 82.6 31.9 220 117 67 50 99 12.4%
Memo: UK 3.8% 0.0% 13.1% 86.7 47.1 219 121 56 65 99 12.7%
Since Oct 1988     251 -Count Services: 154 -Count  
Sentiment is an index, sector readings are net balance diffusion measures
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