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Economy in Brief

Italy's Business Sentiment Bounces Back Highest Reading Since Sept 2008
by Robert Brusca October 28, 2009

Last month Italian consumers felt great and Italian businesses felt worse. In October, Italian consumers felt decidedly worse while business sentiment advanced nicely to a 13 month high.

Still the overall biz indicator stands only in the 37th percentile of its long term range that is well below the mid point and not near enough to a normal, let alone recovery, reading yet. Orders score a -51 raw reading a figure that stand in the bottom 20th percentile of its range. Domestic orders are relatively better off than foreign orders as domestic orders stand in their 25th range percentile while foreign orders stand in their 17th percentile.

In Italy investment goods stand in lower range percentiles than do consumer goods. Italy’s revival seems to be more on the back of the consumer that Germany’s which seems to be relatively more on the aback of foreign demand. Since the consumer is lagging and troubled that is something to keep a close eye on. Foreign orders to Italian exporters have been showing signs of weakening. For that to happen as Italian domestic demand form consumers fades is an ominous sign.

Italy ISAE Business Sentiment
  Since Oct 1996
  Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Percentile Rank
Biz Confidence 77.1 74.3 74.7 72.5 37.7 136
TOTAL INDUSTRY
 Order books & Demand
  Total -51 -52 -51 -58 20.0 138
  Domestic -49 -49 -48 -53 25.9 139
  Foreign -55 -56 -51 -61 17.5 140
Inventories -2 1 2 1 37.5 122
Production -49 -47 -47 -52 15.5 141
INTERMEDIATE
Order books & Demand
  Total -57 -55 -54 -60 21.6 140
  Domestic -57 -54 -53 -60 23.2 140
  Foreign -56 -59 -57 -63 24.5 138
Inventories -7 -1 -6 0 27.6 126
Production -52 -51 -55 -58 21.0 139
INVESTMENT GOODS
Order books & Demand
  Total -62 -61 -63 -69 10.5 139
  Domestic -54 -55 -56 -63 21.0 137
  Foreign -66 -61 -59 -72 6.3 142
Inventories -1 -1 4 8 43.2 98
Production -61 -58 -56 -67 5.9 143
CONSUMER GOODS
Order books & Demand
  Total -36 -38 -37 -37 26.1 138
  Domestic -36 -39 -35 -37 29.0 139
  Foreign -41 -42 -36 -39 22.9 140
Inventories -1 1 3 -1 38.5 98
Production -37 -33 -31 -35 15.8 143
Total number of months: 148
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