Recent Updates

  • US: Final Building Permits (Mar)
  • Ireland: Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
  • France: BdF Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
  • UK: HM Property Transactions, Public Sector Finances (Mar), CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr, Q2), Overseas Holding (Q4)
  • Turkey: Sectoral Confidence Index (Apr); South Africa: Leading Indicators (Jan); Israel: Job Vacancy Survey (Mar); Saudi Arabia: CPI (Mar)
  • Chile: PPI (Mar)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

EMU Trade Surplus Shrinks
by Robert Brusca October 22, 2009

The EMU surplus in trade shrank in August at exports fell a sharp 5.8% in the month and imports skittered lower by 1.3%. While exports are down by a heft 22.8% Yr/Yr their annual rate of decline is cut to the 3% to 4% range over three and six months. While that is a sharp improvement but it still is not growth. Imports are off by 26.&% Yr/Yr and at a -9.7% pace over six months but over three months imports are barely lower falling at an annualized rate of -0.8%.

It is too soon to make anything of significance out of these differences in growth rates. Italy, however, has seen its exports to China drop with the sharpest drop in exports to Russia, the US, and OPEC countries. Timely data on the geography of exports is spotty. But we have seen Italy and Germany report some irregular export and export orders figures recently. In August exports were down across the board in EMU. Few categories show anything but continued deceleration from 6-months to three months although the progress compared to Yr/Yr rates of growth is obvious and very strong. Imports show a clearer, steadier, more widespread picture of growth rates that are cutting their pace of decline.

On balance trade is not the clear homerun it had appeared to be early in the cycle. Some irregularities are cropping up in trade flows and in measures of international export orders.


E-zone Trade trends for goods
  m/m% % Saar
  Aug-09 Jul-09 3M 6M 12M 12M Ago
Balance* €€ 995 €€ 6,000 €€ (6,370) €€ 1,505 €€ (2,779) €€ 1,666
Exports            
  All Exp -5.8% 4.7% -2.9% -3.8% -22.8% 1.5%
Food and Drinks -6.5% 3.4% -10.4% -5.0% -12.2% 2.1%
Raw materials -6.1% 6.0% -3.5% 27.3% -21.5% 7.1%
Other -5.8% 4.8% -2.2% -4.3% -23.5% 1.4%
MFG -8.9% 8.2% -11.8% -8.6% -25.3% -1.8%
IMPORTS            
  All IMP -1.3% 0.8% -0.8% -9.7% -26.7% 8.3%
Food and Drinks -5.1% 1.1% -17.9% -13.8% -13.9% 8.6%
Raw materials 1.2% 2.1% 16.6% -12.4% -39.5% 8.0%
Other -1.1% 0.7% -0.1% -9.3% -26.8% 8.3%
  MFG -1.8% 0.6% -10.8% -12.1% -23.5% -2.3%
*Eur mlns; mo or period average
close
large image