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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca October 16, 2009
Italy’s exports and imports both dropped on the month with
exports dropping faster. As a result, the trade gap widened. But the
gap has improved from its worst level at end of 2008. True, the deficit
has expanded again from it best level in May of 2009, but both exports
and imports are on the mend. The export drop this month was
particularly large and therefore it is hard to put in context; it will
take several more months to figure out if this is a new trend of sorts,
or an oddity.
One problem is that Germany, too, had reported a sharp and
unexpected drop in exports. So the Italian drop may have something to
it. Even so it could be that the same rogue factor affected both of
them, it could be a coincidence, or it could be a fundamental weakening
in exports. It will take time to tell
Because of the relatively sharp drop this month, -15.9% for
exports Vs -8.8% for imports, the Yr/Yr trends are probably distorted.
But both export and import growth are down sharply across major
category components (see the table, at the bottom).
While all nations are banking on trade to become an engine of
growth, US demand seems to be slow in starting and most industrialized
economies are having a hard time getting into gear, too. It is in this
environment in which it is hard to see why up to this point exports
have responded so well in the cycle. One man’s export is another’s
import and ultimately is linked to domestic demand which remains
globally challenged: that is the part that is hard to figure out. Whose
export demands have been strong and will they stay that way?
Italy's Trade Trends | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
m/mo % monthly rate | Period Specified saar | ||||||
Seasonally Adjusted | Aug-09 | Jul-09 | Jun-09 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr-Ago |
Current Account Bal | €€(3,237) | €€(1,382) | €€(2,378) | €€(2,332) | €€(2,099) | €€(3,656) | €€(3,927) |
Goods Balance | €€(1,086) | €€814 | €€939 | €€222 | €€592 | €€163 | €€86 |
Exports | -15.9% | 11.8% | -1.3% | -25.7% | -22.4% | -24.4% | -8.9% |
Imports | -8.8% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 17.9% | -10.9% | -26.0% | -2.4% |
Services Balance | €€ 352 | €€ (399) | €€ (788) | €€ (278) | €€ (585) | €€ (766) | €€ (458) |
Exports | 10.4% | 5.8% | -0.4% | 83.3% | 41.6% | -0.7% | -2.9% |
Imports | -1.7% | -0.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | -15.6% | -12.1% | -3.3% |
Not Seasonally Adjusted | All Yr/Yr | ||||||
Exports | Aug-09 | Aug-08 | Aug-07 | Aug-06 | |||
Food&Bev | -1.7% | -1.7% | 7.2% | 10.1% | |||
Capital Gds | -24.9% | -8.2% | 15.9% | 12.5% | |||
Transport | -23.9% | -7.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | |||
Consumer Gds | -14.1% | -11.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | |||
Other Gds | -44.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 20.0% | |||
Imports | Aug-09 | Aug-08 | Aug-07 | Aug-06 | |||
Food&Bev | -10.5% | -0.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | |||
Capital Gds | -22.4% | -10.5% | 13.1% | 6.0% | |||
Transport | -21.9% | -6.2% | 11.6% | 5.6% | |||
Consumer Gds | -8.5% | -5.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | |||
Other Gds | -42.6% | 9.7% | -0.1% | 33.4% | |||
Balances in Mlns of euros |