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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October, 14, 2009
Without the
healthy incentive to buy a new motor vehicle, retail sales last month
gave back their August gain. Retail Sales fell 1.5% during September
after a 2.2% August increase that was slightly less than reported
initially. The retail sales data are available in Haver's USECON
database.· The end of the "Cash-For-Clunkers" auto sales program led to
a 10.4% drop in retail sales of motor vehicles last month which more
than reversed the 7.8% August jump. These dollar figures accompanied
the 34.6% m/m drop in unit vehicle sales reported earlier this month
which followed a 25.4% August increase.
After accounting for this
extreme volatility, sales during the last two months posted fairly
steady increases. Without the auto sector, retail sales rose 0.5% after
a 1.0% increase during August. Moreover, these gains have suffered
little from the recent jump in gasoline prices.
Without autos and
gasoline, retail sales rose 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) after a 0.6% August
increase. These were the first two consecutive monthly increase since
January/February '09. The y/y change of -1.5% compares to -4.5% y/y
during July.
Discretionary spending firmed last month as sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.9% (1.1% y/y) after a firm 1.2% August increase. In the soft goods area, apparel store sales increased 0.5% (-1.3% y/y) following even firmer increases during the prior two months. Finally, furniture, electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.7% (-8.2% y/y). Furniture store sales alone more-than-reversed an August drop with a 1.4% (-6.5% y/y) jump while sales of electronics & appliances were unchanged (-9.7% y/y).
Internet and catalogue purchases slipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y) following a
0.1% August uptick.
Finally, restaurant sales gained 0.2% (0.6% y/y)
after a 0.6% August gain.· Building materials sales continued their
slump and fell 0.2% (-13.0% y/y) after larger declines during the prior
three months.
Yesterday's speech by Fed Vice chairman Donald L. Kohn on The Economic Outlook can be found here.
September | August | July | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Sales & Food Services (%) | -1.5 | 2.2 | -0.1 | -5.7 | -0.7 | 3.3 | 5.3 |
Excluding Autos | 0.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -8.5 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 6.3 |
Less Gasoline | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -1.6 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 5.7 |