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Economy in Brief
German Orders Surge in June
German orders made a spectacular comeback in June...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Gains Slow in July
Employment slowdown is broad-based last month...
U.S. ISM Services PMI Improves in July
Service sector activity is at highest level since February 2018...
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in June as Exports Jump 2X Imports
Trade Deficit declines to $50.7 billion in June....
Mortgage Applications Fall Despite Declining Rates
Mortgage applications decreased 5.1% in week ending July 31...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 2, 2009
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas indicated that job cut announcements fell last month to the current cycle low. They dropped to 66,404, compared to a high of 241,748 cuts in February of this year.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment. Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
In addition to fewer layoffs, hiring plans have picked up and were more than double last year's level. There have been strong increase in services, electronics and entertainment/leisure industries.
The Challenger figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | September | August | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 66,404 | 76,456 | -30.2% | 1,223,993 | 768,264 | 839,822 |
| Announced Hiring Plans | 25,047 | 13,100 | 162.6 | 118,600 | 365,753 | 276,525 |
