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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
U.S. Import Prices Pulled Lower by Falling Oil Prices
Import prices fell 1.0% during December following a 1.8% November decline...
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Strengthen
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11...
by Tom Moeller October 2, 2009
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas indicated that job cut announcements fell last month to the current cycle low. They dropped to 66,404, compared to a high of 241,748 cuts in February of this year.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment. Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
In addition to fewer layoffs, hiring plans have picked up and were more than double last year's level. There have been strong increase in services, electronics and entertainment/leisure industries.
The Challenger figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | September | August | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 66,404 | 76,456 | -30.2% | 1,223,993 | 768,264 | 839,822 |
| Announced Hiring Plans | 25,047 | 13,100 | 162.6 | 118,600 | 365,753 | 276,525 |
