Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca October 01, 2009
Yes, Japan’s Tankan survey has legs and the rise in the
various large company Tankan indices is ongoing. There is somewhat less
vigor in the rise of the future improvement expected but it is still
advancing at a solid pace and the current situation has improved more
rapidly. The fly in the ointment this quarter is that despite ‘improved
confidence’ the plans for capital expenditure have been cut back. In
the end that casts some doubt about the rise in confidence itself.
Firms with profits still under pressure are acting to conserve cash
instead of aggressively re-deploying themselves for growth ahead. That
kind of behavior could help to torpedo recovery even as survey
respondents say that things are getting better.
The table above shows that manufacturing, wholesaling and personal
services are best sectors in terms of the percentile standing of their
respective indices. Even so these sectors are in the bottom 30th
percentile of their respective ranges or lower. Non MFG as a whole is
in the bottom 13 percentile of its range. Manufacturing’s outlook, at a
raw reading of -21, is in the 41st percentile of its range. That is
somewhat better, than the current assessment but still far from good.
Medium sized firms assess their MFG index as in the 23rd percentile of
its ranges for small enterprises it is much worse as they stand in the
bottom 7th percentile of their range. The nonMFG percentiles for the
medium and small enterprises are comparable to the Tankan Large Company
readings for Non MFG – very weak.
Yes Japan has made progress. But the current state of business is still
poor even though it has improved. While the expected improvement is at
a slightly better level than the assessment of current conditions,
firms continue to react to the recession instead of planning ahead for
recovery. As a result, one of the great forces of recovery has yet to
be unleashed- optimism. Japan’s recovery remains cautiously guarded and
in the end that will be a drag on its momentum. Until firms see the
need to invest for the future and as long as they cut and hack at
existing spending plans the look will remain touch and go.
Tankan Results Large Enterprises | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Readings | Averages | PERCENTILES | |||||
Q3-09 | Q2-09 | Q1-09 | Q4-08 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
MFG | -33.0 | -48.0 | -58.0 | -24.0 | -40.5 | 5.3 | 29.8% |
NonMFG | -24.0 | -29.0 | -31.0 | -9.0 | -26.5 | 7.8 | 13.2% |
Total Industry | -28.0 | -39.0 | -45.0 | -16.0 | -33.5 | 6.5 | 25.0% |
Construction | -23.0 | -29.0 | -27.0 | -10.0 | -26.0 | -5.9 | 18.2% |
Real Estate | -11.0 | -24.0 | -21.0 | -7.0 | -17.5 | 24.3 | 16.9% |
Wholesale | -29.0 | -41.0 | -44.0 | -7.0 | -35.0 | 8.2 | 22.1% |
Retail | -32.0 | -39.0 | -42.0 | -18.0 | -35.5 | -0.9 | 17.2% |
Transportation | -35.0 | -43.0 | -46.0 | -7.0 | -39.0 | 5.8 | 15.7% |
Services 4 Biz | -22.0 | -30.0 | -21.0 | -1.0 | -26.0 | 15.2 | 11.9% |
Personal Serv | -4.0 | -11.0 | -9.0 | -11.0 | -7.5 | 7.1 | 23.3% |
Restaurants & Hotels | -50.0 | -46.0 | -45.0 | -32.0 | -48.0 | -3.3 | 0.0% |
Forecast | |||||||
Q4-09 | Q3-09 | Q2-09 | Q1-09 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
MFG-OtLk | -21.0 | -30.0 | -51.0 | -36.0 | -34.5 | 5.8 | 41.1% |
NonMFG -Otlk | -17.0 | -21.0 | -30.0 | -14.0 | -20.5 | 8.4 | 24.5% |
All Industry-Otlk | -19.0 | -26.0 | -41.0 | -25.0 | -27.8 | 7.0 | 34.9% |
Tankan Results Medium Enterprises | |||||||
Q3-09 | Q2-09 | Q1-09 | 1-Y Avg | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
MFG | -40.0 | -55.0 | -57.0 | -44.0 | -44.0 | -7.8 | 23.0% |
NonMFG | -30.0 | -36.0 | -37.0 | -31.0 | -31.0 | -8.9 | 15.6% |
Forecast | |||||||
Q4-09 | Q3-09 | Q2-09 | Q1-09 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
MFG-OtLk | -35.0 | -46.0 | -61.0 | -45.0 | -46.8 | -9.1 | 34.7% |
NonMFG -Otlk | -28.0 | -32.0 | -45.0 | -32.0 | -34.3 | -10.5 | 32.7% |
All Industry-Otlk | -31.0 | -39.0 | -51.0 | -38.0 | -39.8 | -10.1 | 32.8% |
Tankan Results Small Enterprises | |||||||
Q4-09 | Q3-09 | Q2-09 | Q1-09 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
MFG | -52.0 | -57.0 | -57.0 | -54.5 | -54.5 | -15.0 | 7.5% |
NonMFG | -39.0 | -44.0 | -42.0 | -41.5 | -41.5 | -20.2 | 13.2% |
Total Industry | -39.0 | -44.0 | -42.0 | -41.5 | -41.5 | -20.2 | 12.2% |
Forecast | |||||||
Q4-09 | Q3-09 | Q2-09 | Q1-09 | 1-Y Avg | Since Q3'03 | Since Q1'04 | |
MFG-OtLk | -44.0 | -53.0 | -63.0 | -48.0 | -52.0 | -16.2 | 26.4% |
NonMFG -Otlk | -40.0 | -45.0 | -52.0 | -42.0 | -44.8 | -23.9 | 27.3% |
All Industry-Otlk | -41.0 | -48.0 | -56.0 | -44.0 | -47.3 | -21.1 | 27.8% |