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Economy in Brief

IP In France Edges Higher In July
by Robert Brusca  September 10, 2009

French industrial production rose by a thin margin of 0.1% in June, less than expected. Auto production contracted after a strong spurt in earlier months. Still, France has showed one of the stronger rebounds in EMU IP. It did not sink as far as German IP but it has rebounded just as much.

In France consumer durables output fell by a sharp 2.6% in July. For nondurables consumer output was up by 1.1%. Capital goods output took a set back despite what has been a solid run of growth for that sector. Intermediate goods output rose strongly in July.

Trends in French IP are up strongly and across the board with the exception of consumer durables.

In the current quarter output is rising at a 7.7% annual rate with all main sectors doing better than that except, again, consumer durables which is contracting in the new quarter and weighing down the headline. On balance the rebound is robust and seems well entrenched. The lack of progress in consumer durable goods is however a fly in the recovery ointment. It suggests that consumers are able to be coaxed out to buy some things but that they do not have the fundamental confidence to take on the bigger-ticket items.

French IP Excluding Construction
Saar exept m/m Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo Quarter
IP total 0.1% 0.2% 3.0% 13.9% -0.7% -13.0% 7.7%
  Consumer Dur -2.6% -2.9% 0.8% -17.8% -20.9% -21.5% -23.3%
  Consumer Ndur 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 5.9% -3.4% -2.3% 11.1%
  Capital -0.2% 1.1% 4.0% 21.0% 7.4% -15.0% 11.1%
  Intermed 1.6% -0.1% 3.7% 22.7% 4.4% -19.6% 17.9%
  Auto -1.9% 14.3% 12.5% 154.2% 23.2% -29.8% 87.2%
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