Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 17, 2009
For August, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was positive and at its highest level in two years. The latest reading of 12.08 compares to sharply negative levels this past Winter and suggests positive growth in factory sector activity. The latest level was better than Consensus expectations for a reading of 3.0.
The figure is a diffusion index. Since the series' inception in 2001, there has been a 75% correlation between its level and the three-month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to independent survey questions; it is not a weighted combination of the components. The series dates back only to 2001.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
The new orders component paced the August index gain with a rise to the highest level in two years. The shipments index also improved to its highest since early-2008 while the employment index jumped m/m to its highest level since last October. In the history of the NY employment index, there has been an 87% correlation between the employment index and the three-month growth in overall U.S. factory sector employment as reported by the Labor Department. The workweek index also improved sharply as the unfilled orders, inventories and delivery times series rose modestly.
The price index firmed to its highest level since November. Nevertheless, the index level remained down sharply from last year. Since inception in 2001, there has been a 77% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three-month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months rose during August to its highest level since early 2007. The subseries for new orders, shipments, employment and capital expenditures each ticked up.
The Empire State data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Below the Line: Estimates of Negative Equity among Nonprime Mortgage Borrowers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.Empire State Manufacturing Survey | August | July | August '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Conditions (diffusion index, %) | 12.08 | -0.55 | -1.16 | -10.10 | 17.23 | 20.24 |
New Orders | 13.43 | 5.89 | -3.50 | -6.25 | 15.71 | 20.11 |
Employment | -7.45 | -20.83 | -4.49 | -5.36 | 11.28 | 12.62 |
Prices Paid | 13.83 | 10.42 | 65.17 | 46.99 | 35.64 | 41.88 |