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Economy in Brief

German Orders Surge Again
by Robert Brusca August 6, 2009

German new orders rose by 4.5% in June after rising by 4.4% in May. Orders are up and at a 42% annual rate over three-months and STILL they stand lower by 23.7% than they did one year ago. In the newly completed second quarter, orders are up at a 26.8% annual rate. While real sector sales in mining and MFG are up at a 3.4% pace in the quarter. Germany is beginning to turn the corner, despite ongoing weakness in retail sales.

German domestic orders barely nudged higher rising by nearly rounding error (0.2%) in June. Foreign orders spurted by 8.3% putting in their second strong month in a row. Exports remain the lifeblood of the German economy. The report that Hungary’s industrial output rose for the second month in a row is good news for Germany, suggesting that eastern European export markets are among those that are reviving.

In June German real sector sales for consumer goods rose by 0.2% as consumer durables plunged by 3.7%. Capital goods real sales rose by 1.2% after spurting by 9.2% in May. Intermediates goods sales rose by 2.8%. German real sector sales were up across the abroad in the quarter as well with the exception of consumer durables, where sales fell in the quarter at a hefty -8.4% annual rate.




German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin
Real and SA % M/M % Saar
  Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 3-MO 6-Mo 12-Mo YrAgo QTR-2-Date
Total Orders 4.5% 4.4% 0.1% 42.6% 19.4% -23.7% -8.0% 26.8%
Foreign 8.3% 4.9% -0.9% 61.2% 27.0% -24.2% -11.4% 40.0%
Domestic 0.2% 4.1% 1.1% 23.8% 11.3% -23.1% -3.6% 13.5%
Real Sector Sales
MFG/Mining 1.4% 4.6% -2.0% 16.6% 8.0% -17.4% 0.9% 3.4%
Consumer 0.2% -2.2% 4.0% 8.0% 3.9% -6.8% -3.9% 4.7%
Consumer Durables -3.7% 6.1% -1.2% 3.8% 1.9% -21.8% -1.6% -8.4%
Consumer Nondurables 0.6% -3.2% 4.6% 7.8% 3.8% -4.1% -4.2% 6.7%
Capital Goods 1.2% 9.2% -7.3% 10.1% 4.9% -22.3% 3.9% 1.2%
Intermediate Goods 2.8% 2.8% 1.5% 32.0% 14.9% -18.2% 1.2% 9.7%
All MFG-Sales 1.5% 4.4% -2.0% 16.6% 8.0% -17.6% 0.8% 3.3%
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