Recent Updates
- Germany: Unfilled Orders, Manufacturing Orders Backlog (Dec)
- Japan: Trends in National Market for Condominiums (Jan)
- China: Retail Price Index (Jan)
- Singapore: Fixed Asset Investments (Q4)
- Australia: Overseas Arrivals and Departures (Dec)
- Korea: Import & Export Price Indexes (Jan)
- Turkey: House Price Index (Dec)
- UK: Rightmove HPI (Feb), LSL/Acadata HPI (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
EMU-16 Trade Flows and Balance
EMU-wide exports ticked lower in December as imports were flat...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller July 24, 2009
Worries
about the prospects for the economy persisted late this month, but they
eased somewhat from earlier. The University of Michigan's full-month
reading of July consumer sentiment came in at 66.0 versus the mid-month
reading of 64.6. Despite the improvement, however, sentiment was at its
lowest level since May. Consensus expectations had been for a slightly
lower July reading of 65.0. During the last ten years, there has been a
72% correlation between the level of sentiment and the growth in real
consumer spending during the next five months.
The expectations
component of the sentiment index deteriorated the most this month, but
less than the mid-month read. It posted an 8.7% m/m decline.
That
nevertheless left the index up sharply y/y. Expectations for personal
finances fell m/m to the lowest level since March (+4.8% y/y). Expected
business conditions during the next year held steady at the June level
(+64.3% y/y) but expectations for conditions during the next five years
fell sharply (+12.3% y/y). Inflation expectations for the next year
slipped to 3.6% from 3.9% during June. That compares to a low of 1.7%
last December but remained down from a reading which was as high as
7.0% during May of last year. The highest expectations were for 5.3%
price inflation while the lowest were for 0.3%.
The reading of current economic conditions gave back roughly half of its improvement during June. As at mid-month, the decline was led by a reversal of the June rise in the index of current buying conditions for large household goods. The reading of current personal finances rose for the second month with higher stock market prices and reduced levels of personal debt. It has returned to the April level.
The opinion of government policy, which may eventually influence economic expectations, fell for the second month to its lowest level since February. An increased 32% of respondents thought that a poor job was being done by government while a reduced 23% thought that a good job was being done.
The
University of Michigan survey data is not seasonally adjusted.
The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500
households at month-end; the mid-month results are based on about 300
interviews. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON
database with details in the proprietary UMSCA database.
Regulatory restructuring is today's House testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here.
Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy: Conference Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
University of Michigan | July | Mid-July | June | May | July y/y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 66.0 | 64.6 | 70.8 | 68.7 | 5.8% | 63.8 | 85.6 | 87.3 |
Current Conditions | 70.5 | 70.4 | 73.2 | 67.7 | -3.6 | 73.7 | 101.2 | 105.1 |
Expectations | 63.2 | 60.9 | 69.2 | 69.4 | 18.1 | 57.3 | 75.6 | 75.9 |