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Economy in Brief

Industrial Orders Trends Begin To Turn...Ever So Slowly
by Robert Brusca July 20, 2009

Industrial orders in Italy made a slight bounce in May. French orders fell after a slight bounce in April. Neither shows any sign of upward momentum and the downward momentum has only just been trimmed if we compare 3-month growth rates to 12-month growth rates.

What is interesting is the very different performance in foreign orders as between Italy and France and Germany. Germany is showing some very substantial recovery in foreign-sourced orders. But it Italy, foreign order are falling at an accelerating pace through May. In France, foreign orders have shown a clear patterns of progress with the three-month growth rate reduced to an annual pace of -9.7% compared to -24% Yr/Yr.

Whatever progress is being experienced in Europe, it is irregular. Clearly some economies in the Zone are doing better than others despite the common currency regime - and that is true for sales overseas underlining the that exchange rates are not the only factor in the success of foreign sales efforts. The more variance there is across e-Zone countries in their respective economic performances, the more it will wear on the fragile e-Zone area where talk of integration is tough despite member countries efforts to continue to go it alone on fiscal policy. Europe still has a recession and still has some divisive political forces to weather. And yet more European ‘integration’ lies ahead.

Italy Orders
Saar exept m/m May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo
Total 0.4% -3.6% -2.6% -20.9% -24.3% -29.0%
Foreign 0.2% -2.9% -9.3% -39.4% -27.5% -33.0%
Domestic 0.5% -3.9% 1.0% -9.3% -22.7% -26.7%
Sales -1.1% -0.1% -0.7% -7.3% -22.3% -21.9%
French Orders
Saar exept m/m May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo
Total -1.1% 0.6% -5.7% -22.3% -9.2% -23.9%
Foreign 0.4% 6.5% -8.8% -9.7% -12.4% -27.0%
IP xConstruct 2.4% -0.6% -1.4% 1.4% -15.1% -15.0%
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