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Economy in Brief

Auto Registrations Lead Recovery In Europe
by Robert Brusca July 6, 2009

Special programs to incentivize new car purchases are having success in spurring new passenger car registrations in Europe. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Monday that the recession in Europe will extend throughout 2009. Yet the auto sector is doing much better now.

These key large European economies show momentum building from 12-months to six months to three-months. Although most of retails sales is languishing, the special incentives have prompted auto sales to revive. In Germany the strongest growth is over six months as the three month growth rate has backed off. France exhibits the same sort of pattern but with much less strength over six months and three months.

Sales in Spain over three-months are exploding despite the ongoing crash in the housing market there. Sales in the UK have finally showing some growth over three-months buts sales there are still lower on six months and 12-months.

Auto sales alone will not be enough to turn around the sagging European economy. Much of Europe depends on export sales reviving; that will require a more balanced rebound and for recovery to spread to the surrounding area in Eastern Europe as well. For now, sales inventive plans seem to be working for autos and that will help to spread some optimism and growth and should combine with other programs to help to get growth back on track in 2010.

E Area Car Registrations
3-Mo Trend
From
6-Mo Trend
From
12-Mo Trend
From
All Seasons
Adjusted
Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 May-09 Jun-09 May-09 Jun-09 May-09
Germany: 6.5% -6.2% 15.8% 79.1% 2.2% 128.3% 125.9% 40.7% 39.4%
France (&WDA) -10.6% 17.7% -2.4% 11.2% 123.3% 19.3% 48.9% 6.6% 14.6%
Italy 20.3% -12.3% 9.7% 79.9% 34.3% 12.8% 20.8% 11.5% -9.4%
Spain 25.9% -9.3% 15.9% 206.5% -12.4% 22.1% -9.3% -16.0% -39.1%
UK 9.6% -6.6% 10.2% 62.5% -20.2% -9.8% 17.5% -16.7% -25.5%
Base Month of Calculation May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Jun-08 May-08
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