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Economy in Brief

Tankan Improves: Still In Slow-Motion
by Robert Brusca  July 1, 2009

The percentile readings on the far right of the table tell the real story. A bottom 12 percentile range result is about the strongest reading for any component except for the outlook surveys where the standing is a 20% to 30% result or worse for small firms. These are still very weak numbers for Japan.

Large-, small- and medium-sized firms all show some improvement in the quarter. For small firms the outlook mostly deteriorated, in contrast with the other firms’ views. The closely watched large firm survey shows MFG firms are doing better than non MFG firms in terms the their respective range percentile readings, although the raw readings make it seem as though the non MFG firms are doing better. Their raw response while higher than those for MFG, sit lower in its range that the MFG response sits in its range.

Three non MFG sectors, wholesale, retail, and transportation, managed to improve quarter-to-quarter. MFG improved as well. The rest worsened. It’s a poor showing despite the improvement in the quarter.


Tankan Results Large Enterprises
  Readings Averages PERCENTILES
  Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 Q3-08 1-Y Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG -48.0 -58.0 -24.0 -3.0 -53.0 8.2 11.9%
NonMFG -29.0 -31.0 -9.0 1.0 -30.0 9.6 3.8%
Total Industry -39.0 -45.0 -16.0 0.0 -42.0 8.8 8.8%
Construction -29.0 -27.0 -10.0 -7.0 -28.0 -5.4 0.0%
Real Estate -24.0 -21.0 -7.0 5.0 -22.5 25.6 0.0%
Wholesale -41.0 -44.0 -7.0 11.0 -42.5 10.7 4.4%
Retail -39.0 -42.0 -18.0 -5.0 -40.5 0.7 5.2%
Transportation -43.0 -46.0 -7.0 6.0 -44.5 8.3 4.3%
Services 4 Biz -30.0 -21.0 -1.0 4.0 -25.5 17.4 0.0%
Personal Serv -11.0 -9.0 -11.0 6.0 -10.0 7.6 0.0%
Restaurants & Hotels -46.0 -45.0 -32.0 -13.0 -45.5 -0.8 0.0%
Forecast
  Q3-09 Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 1-Y Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG-OtLk -30.0 -51.0 -36.0 -4.0 -30.3 7.9 28.8%
NonMFG -Otlk -21.0 -30.0 -14.0 -1.0 -16.5 9.8 17.0%
All Industry-Otlk -26.0 -41.0 -25.0 -2.0 -23.5 8.7 23.8%
Tankan Results Medium Enterprises
  Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 1-Y Avg 1-Y Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG -55.0 -57.0 -24.0 -36.0 -36.0 -3.7 2.7%
NonMFG -36.0 -37.0 -21.0 -26.5 -26.5 -6.3 2.2%
Forecast
  Q3-09 Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 1-Y Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG-OtLk -46.0 -61.0 -45.0 -12.0 -41.0 -5.7 20.0%
NonMFG -Otlk -32.0 -45.0 -32.0 -17.0 -31.5 -8.1 25.0%
All Industry-Otlk -39.0 -51.0 -38.0 -15.0 -35.8 -7.3 19.7%
Tankan Results Small Enterprises
  Q3-09 Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 1-Y Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG -57.0 -57.0 -29.0 -57.0 -57.0 -10.5 0.0%
NonMFG -44.0 -42.0 -29.0 -43.0 -43.0 -17.6 0.0%
Total Industry -44.0 -42.0 -29.0 -43.0 -43.0 -17.6 0.0%
Forecast
  Q3-09 Q2-09 Q1-09 Q4-08 1-Y Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG-OtLk -53.0 -63.0 -48.0 -25.0 -47.3 -12.4 13.9%
NonMFG -Otlk -45.0 -52.0 -42.0 -31.0 -42.5 -21.6 15.9%
All Industry-Otlk -48.0 -56.0 -44.0 -29.0 -44.3 -18.3 14.8%
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