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Economy in Brief

IP Still Falling in Euro Area: but Evidence of Slowing
by Robert Brusca June 12, 2009

Industrial output fell again in April marking the 12th straight month of decline in Yr/Yr output; industrial output has gone 12-months without a month to month gain as well (m/m output was flat in August of 2008).

Declines spread across all major output categories in the month. In terms of the sequential growth rates (3m compared to 6mo compared to 12mo) there is improvement in train for intermediate and capital goods but consumer goods output trends are getting progressively worse. The overall trends show that after a worsening in the growth rate at 6-months, the three-month growth rate has limited its pace of decline to -18.9%.

Obviously the picture for EMU is still poor. Output is declining on a broad front and still falling sharply on that broad front. There are some signs that the output declines are abating. The signs from the EMU index are the weakest. Strongest signs of a turnaround come from the patterns in the large EMU economies.

Euro Area MFG IP
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Apr
09
Mar
09
Apr
09
Mar
09
Apr
09
Mar
09
 
Euro Area Detail Apr
09
Mar
09
Feb
09
3mo 3mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-to-
Date
MFG -1.5% -1.2% -2.5% -18.9% -25.4% -26.5% -27.6% -21.5% -20.2% -17.3%
Consumer -0.9% -0.5% -1.8% -11.9% -10.3% -9.6% -9.4% -8.6% -7.3% -10.3%
Consumer Durables -0.8% -1.2% -3.6% -20.2% -24.6% -25.9% -26.8% -22.2% -20.9% --
Consumer Nondurables -0.7% -0.3% -1.5% -9.9% -7.8% -6.7% -6.6% -6.2% -5.1% --
Intermediate -1.7% -1.8% -2.5% -21.6% -22.8% -32.5% -34.1% -26.6% -25.3% -20.4%
Capital -2.7% 0.0% -3.1% -21.0% -34.6% -32.6% -32.8% -26.3% -22.3% -20.5%
Main Euro Area Countries and UK IP in MFG
  Mo/Mo Apr-09 Mar
09
Apr
09
Mar
09
Apr
09
Mar
09
 
MFG Only Apr
09
Mar
09
Feb
09
3mo 3mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-to-
Date
Germany: -2.9% 0.8% -3.5% -20.5% -35.2% -36.8% -35.8% -24.2% -22.1% -19.4%
France: IP excl Construction -1.4% -1.7% -0.9% -15.0% -24.4% -22.5% -26.1% -18.8% -16.4% -15.8%
Italy 0.7% -4.7% -5.0% -30.9% -36.7% -30.6% -34.8% -25.2% -25.6% -22.7%
Spain 5.8% -5.0% 1.2% 7.1% -39.1% -24.7% -36.1% -28.6% -13.7% 16.7%
UK: EU member 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.9% -12.2% -15.2% -18.2% -12.7% -13.1% 1.8%
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