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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 21, 2009
Perhaps foreshadowing economic recovery was a report from the Conference Board showing that the April composite index of leading economic indicators jumped 1.0%. The rise recovered the declines during the prior several months and left the index at its highest level since last November.
Nearly three quarters of the ten components of the leading index increased last month with the largest contributions coming from higher stock prices, improved consumer expectations and a more positively sloped interest rate yield curve.
The leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The Conference Board initially estimates two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods.
Suggesting that the rate of decline in the economy is slowing were the coincident indicators. They fell another 0.2% which was the smallest decline since last July. The negative contributions from lower employment and production eased. Half of the four component series rose during April led by gains in real disposable income and business sales. Over the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between this y/y change and real GDP.
In a sign that excesses in the U.S. economy are diminishing, the lagging index fell for the fourth month in the last five. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators (a measure of economic excess) rose modestly to the highest level this year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | April | March | February | Jan. 6-Month % (AR) | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 1.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
Coincident | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -4.9 | -0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
Lagging | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 |