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Economy in Brief

Euro Area IP Drops Again All Sectors Still Weak
by Robert Brusca May 13, 2009

Euro Area manufacturing output fell by 2.1% in March. The 21.2% drop Yr/Yr exceeds the 20.2% drop posted in February. The sequential growth rate rates seem to have stabilized at a very torrid pace of decline just under 30% at an annual rate. The capital goods sector shows some slowdown in its decline in the Year/Year numbers but the 3-mo growth rates for capital goods continue to deteriorate beyond their readings for the six month growth rate.

Germany, Italy and Spain have the most rapid declines in IP growth over the past three months. Germany and Italy are also the two worst over the last 12-months. Output declines in the UK have slowed markedly in the last few months; they post an annual rate of decline of only -12.9% over three months.

For the quarter, massive declines in output are still being registered. In Germany output is declining in the quarter at a 45% annual rate. In France the decline is at a 25% annual rate. In Italy it falls at a 34% annual rate. UK IP is falling at a 20% annual rate in the quarter despite its recent greater stability. The upcoming EU member country GDP growth rates for Q1 should be extremely weak

Euro Area MFG IP
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Mar
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Feb
09
 
Euro Area  Detail Mar
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-1
MFG -2.1% -2.4% -3.6% -28.1% -31.9% -29.0% -29.5% -21.2% -20.2% -31.2%
Consumer -1.3% -1.7% -1.0% -14.9% -12.0% -11.1% -10.4% -9.0% -8.2% -12.0%
Consumer Durables -2.5% -3.6% -2.4% -29.4% -29.9% -28.9% -29.1% -22.2% -21.3% --
Consumer Non-durables -1.0% -1.5% -0.9% -12.6% -9.8% -8.1% -7.5% -6.8% -6.4% --
Intermediate -3.1% -2.5% -1.6% -25.3% -35.5% -35.2% -35.8% -26.0% -24.3% -34.0%
Capital -0.5% -2.9% -7.2% -35.6% -41.6% -33.1% -36.2% -22.8% -24.2% -40.0%
Main Euro Area Countries and UK IP in MFG
  Mo/Mo Mar09 Feb09 Mar09 Feb09 Mar09 Feb09  
MFG Only Mar
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-1-
Date
Germany: -0.2% -3.5% -7.7% -37.8% -48.4% -37.1% -40.0% -22.9% -22.9% -45.7%
France: IP ex Construction -1.4% -0.9% -3.9% -22.2% -23.0% -25.1% -25.5% -16.1% -15.9% -24.7%
Italy -4.7% -5.0% -1.3% -36.4% -35.7% -34.8% -33.7% -25.6% -21.6% -34.1%
Spain -5.1% 1.1% -8.2% -39.7% -21.4% -36.5% -25.5% -13.9% -24.5% -37.1%
UK: EU member 0.0% -0.3% -3.1% -12.9% -19.3% -18.0% -19.7% -12.9% -13.4% -20.3%
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