Recent Updates

  • US: GDP by Industry (Q1)
  • Canada: Retail Trade (May), CPI (Jun)
  • Thailand: Trade (Jun); China: Loans from Financial Institutions (Jun); Korea: Trade in Goods (Jun); Taiwan: Export Orders (Jun)
  • Turkey: NCI Index (Jul)
  • Turkey: Established & Liquidated (Jun-Press); Morocco: CPI, Public Finance (Jun)
  • Spain: Workers Affected by Layoffs (Apr); Foreign Trade (May)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

The UK Halts Its String Of MFG Output Declines
by Robert Brusca May 12, 2009

In the UK overall MFG output is flat in March. Despite the fall, the output of durable consumer goods is up in March and its trend shows a diminishing pace of decline. Consumer nondurable output is up for three months in a row and sports an accelerating up-trend. For intermediate goods the pace of decline is still fairly rapid and its growth rate profile is more or less stuck at seriously negative rates of growth. Capital goods remains as the most severely impacted sector with decelerations in output growth still in place.

By detailed sector, food, drink and tobacco output is accelerating and showing strong positive growth over three-months. Textile and leather goods output has accelerated its decline over three-months. Motor vehicles output is still dire with very strong rates of negative growth. Mining activity has worsened over six months then maintained that strong pace of decline. Overall utilities output has been trimmed increasingly aggressively in recent months –a bad overall sign.

While the UK does have some bright spots and the retail BRC survey has produced a strong retail sales result for April, the UK trends are still seriously troubled for industry. Signs of some improvement in retailing and an increase in housing sentiment are helpful since a consumer revival that stokes demand will lift output. And while there are some encouraging signs from the consumer there is little evidence so far that this is helping capital goods industries much. The cessation of the drop in IP is good news. But the industrial sector is caught between what seems to be some improvement by the consumer amid still worsening conditions for capital goods. The nascent improvement in the UK MFG PMI suggests that there may be some support in the pipeline for the sector as a whole, however. Meanwhile the up-turn in the three-month trend for IP itself also suggests that the worst may be over. Industry remains seriously troubled, but this is probably the beginning of a true turn for the UK economy.

UK IP and MFG
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Mar
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Feb
09
 
UK MFG Mar
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q1-
Date
  MFG 0.0% -0.3% -3.1% -12.9% -19.3% -18.0% -19.7% -12.9% -13.4% -7.4%
Consumer
  C-Durables 0.7% -0.6% -4.8% -17.6% -30.8% -26.4% -27.0% -19.4% -21.5% -7.9%
  C-Non-durables 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 9.2% 3.4% -0.6% -4.2% -3.0% -4.4% 9.8%
Intermediate -1.1% -1.3% -3.7% -21.8% -23.7% -23.4% -21.1% -14.7% -14.0% -17.7%
Capital -1.5% -1.4% -5.1% -27.9% -29.5% -26.0% -25.3% -17.7% -16.5% -22.6%
Memo: Detail 1Mo% 1Mo% 1Mo% 3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q1-
Date
  Food Drink&tobacco 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 12.1% 0.0% -1.0% -2.6% -2.5% -3.5% 11.9%
  Textile&Leather -2.3% -0.4% -3.0% -20.6% -19.8% -14.2% -12.5% -8.7% -6.4% -19.6%
  Motor Vehicles & trailer 5.0% -4.8% -18.5% -55.8% -64.9% -58.9% -64.8% -42.8% -46.1% -29.4%
  Mining and Quarry -2.4% -1.3% -3.3% -24.8% -18.1% -24.7% -10.0% -10.7% -8.5% -23.5%
  Electricity, gas&H2O -2.8% -3.3% -0.2% -22.8% -12.0% -12.3% -9.7% -9.2% -6.0% -26.8%
close
large image