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Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs The Long View
by Robert Brusca May 11, 2009

Taken in a rather broad perspective the downturn according to the OECD’s LEIs which are cyclically adjusted is quite severe; the worst since 1970, at least. But the US and several counties in OECD Europe are showing signs of doing less badly which means, potentially, showing signs of turning the corner on recession.

Readings for France and Italy are up for three months running through March. China and UK indices are up for two months in a row. The OECD has characterized these economies and well as the OECD regions as being in a ‘strong slowdown’. It now says that in France, Italy and the UK troughs may have been reached.

Among developing countries China shows the clearest sign of troughing while Brazil and India continue to emit signals that say that they are still declining.

OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators
Growth progression-SAAR
  3Mos 6Mos 12mos Yr-Ago
OECD -5.7% -10.4% -9.5% -0.7%
OECD7 -8.8% -13.0% -10.9% -1.3%
OECD US -11.5% -15.6% -12.1% -1.0%
Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals:
  Recent six 6Mo Ago 12Mo Ago 18MO Ago
OECD -10.4% -8.5% -1.2% -0.3%
OECD7 -13.0% -8.7% -1.9% -0.7%
OECD US -15.6% -8.4% -2.6% 0.7%
OECD JAPAN -15.6% -8.4% -2.6% 0.7%
Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED
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