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Economy in Brief

E-Area IP Plunges
by Robert Brusca  April 16, 2009

The chart above makes it clear that it is not the consumer sector that is leading IP lower in Europe. Capital goods and intermediate goods output are falling by 23% Year/Year compared to consumer goods output that is down by just 7.7%. Over three months capital goods output is declining at a 41% pace and intermediates goods output is off at a 23% pace compared to minus 10% for consumer goods. In the quarter to date the same sorts of caution hold sway as Q1 is shaping up to be a terrible quarter for the industrial sector. Moreover the rates of declines have sped up from 12-months to 6-months to three months. Across countries German shows the a clear persisting pattern of deceleration in industrial output. France and Spain see their growth rates slowing the rate of decline over three months compared to six months while Italy and the UK show flat growth rates in three months compared to six months.

Still there is scant goods in the Area’s industrial sector this month. The preference is in step with ongoing declines in industrial output in the US extraordinary weakness in Japan and in China; China has posted another drop in exports (fifth monthly drop in a row) and registered its slowest growth rate in about a decade. The pull back is global and it is still pulling back. It may be slowing but not even that is clear.



E-Area MFG IP
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Feb
09
Jan
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
 
E-Area Detail Feb
09
Jan
09
Dec
08
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-1
MFG -2.4% -3.2% -3.3% -30.3% -31.7% -28.4% -24.7% -19.6% -17.5% -30.9%
Consumer -1.6% -0.8% -0.3% -10.4% -7.4% -9.2% -6.9% -7.7% -6.2% -9.6%
C-Durables -4.3% -1.8% -2.5% -29.4% -28.8% -28.5% -21.3% -21.2% -16.9%  
C-Non-durables -1.4% -0.7% -0.1% -8.3% -4.8% -6.3% -4.5% -5.9% -4.5%  
Intermediate -2.4% -1.0% -6.4% -32.9% -37.3% -34.0% -30.6% -23.4% -21.3% -32.0%
Capital -3.0% -7.0% -2.9% -41.0% -41.5% -35.8% -30.4% -23.9% -21.5% -43.3%
Main E-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG
  Mo/Mo Feb
09
Jan
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
Feb
09
Jan
09
 
MFG Only Feb
09
Jan
09
Dec
08
3Mo 3Mo 6mo 6mo 12mo 12mo Q-2-
Date
Germany: -3.4% -7.3% -4.8% -47.3% -48.9% -39.3% -32.0% -22.5% -19.6% -49.1%
France: IPxConstruct'n -0.5% -3.9% -1.6% -21.5% -28.7% -24.7% -22.9% -15.5% -14.5% -25.9%
Italy -4.0% -1.1% -4.2% -31.6% -28.6% -31.1% -24.8% -20.3% -16.8% -28.6%
Spain 1.5% -7.9% 1.4% -19.5% -46.6% -24.6% -40.3% -24.0% -24.6% -37.0%
UK: EU member -0.9% -3.0% -1.9% -20.7% -27.4% -20.4% -20.2% -13.8% -13.0% -24.2%
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