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Economy in Brief

Market Services PMIs Turn Higher In March
by Robert Brusca  April 3, 2009

In the Market PMI framework Europe is stabilizing as the rates of decline in MFG and Services bottom and begin to show some improvement. But the EU framework of surveys shows declines are still in train. The table above shows the EMU and EU EC-Commission readings along with the Market PMI readings. They are in conflict. The EC readings for services are mostly on their lows while the Market figures have risen from their respective lows.

Germany, France, Italy Spain and Ireland each showed Service sector improvement in March in the Market framework. The UK also showed some nice improvement. All the indices are still below 50, indicating ongoing contraction for the sector. The three-month averages are still falling and MEU Ireland France and UK each do show current market reading that surpass their respective three-month averages a good sign for stability and recovery.

NTC Services Indices for EU/EMU
  Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
Euro-13 40.95 39.24 42.16 40.78 42.11 45.80 8.0%
Germany 42.30 41.32 45.20 42.94 44.81 48.70 5.0%
France 43.64 40.18 42.56 42.13 43.44 46.64 14.1%
Italy 39.10 37.85 41.10 39.35 40.58 44.45 5.2%
Spain 34.11 31.73 31.84 32.56 31.71 35.40 18.3%
Ireland 35.69 31.78 33.94 33.80 34.03 38.10 10.8%
EU only
UK (CIPs) 45.47 43.24 42.48 43.73 42.31 45.31 26.4%
US NONFMG ISM #N/A 41.60 42.90 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
EU Commission Indices for EU and EMU
EU Index Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
EU Services -31 -29 -28 -32.67 -29.50 -23.25 0.0%
EMU Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
Services -25 -24 -22 -23.67 -17.83 -8.63 0.0%
Cons Confidence -34 -33 -31 -32.67 -29.50 -13.50 0.0%
Consumer confidence by country
Germany-Ccon -31 -29 -27 -29.00 -22.67 -14.08 0.0%
France-Ccon -36 -36 -35 -35.67 -33.67 -27.33 0.0%
Ital-Ccon -31 -28 -26 -28.33 -27.33 -25.08 0.0%
Spain-Ccon -43 -48 -44 -45.00 -44.83 -39.83 10.4%
UK-Ccon -28 -32 -35 -31.67 -29.67 -24.92 18.4%
percentile is over range since May 2000
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