Recent Updates
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Nov-Prelim)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca March 24, 2009
UK inflation spurted in February quite unexpectedly. As the
table shows, the month-to-month acceleration is quite widespread. UK
core inflation continues to hover below the key 2% level, although it
has ticked up this month too. Headline inflation has ticked higher and
now stands at 3.2% Yr/Yr. Three-and six-month headline inflation show a
sharp deceleration as you can tell from the included chart. UK
statistics have been a bit mercurial with surveys showing much more
weakness that the actual reports especially for things like retail
sales. It is certainly too soon to develop angst over inflation trends
in the UK. For the moment the month’s report is a curiosity. Surely
economic conditions are still too weak to engender any significant
inflation at this time. Still, Europe is the place that inflation is
most feared. The BOE has been bolder than the ECB and ECB policies
remain more restrictive than in the UK. Even so, having an inflation
scare in a country so close to home, even a scare of minor proportions,
is an issue. It is not the sort of thing that will get the kind of bold
action from the ECB that the European economies still seem to need. The
UK inflation blip is not good news.
UK HICP and RPI Inflation | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% MO/MO | % saar | ||||||
Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | Yr Ago | |
HICP | 0.7% | -0.1% | -0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
All Item RPI | 0.3% | -0.7% | -1.5% | -7.4% | -4.7% | 0.0% | 4.1% |
RPI x | 0.7% | -0.1% | -0.6% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% |
RPI excl Seasonal Food | 0.3% | -0.7% | -1.5% | -7.7% | -4.9% | -0.3% | 4.1% |
Food & Beverages | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 11.3% | 6.1% |
Housing and HH Expenditures | -0.5% | -0.9% | -3.2% | -17.1% | -8.5% | -2.7% | 5.1% |
Clothing & Footwear | 0.8% | -0.1% | -3.2% | -9.6% | -8.2% | -6.4% | -1.5% |
Leisure Services | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
Leisure Goods | 1.5% | -0.1% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -3.6% | -3.6% | -2.7% |
Motoring Expenditures | 1.9% | -1.9% | -2.3% | -9.1% | -16.7% | -7.4% | 5.2% |
Fares and Travel Costs | -1.5% | -3.2% | 4.8% | -0.4% | 2.8% | 8.3% | 3.8% |
A RED highlight indicates inflation accelerating from pace of previous horizon |