Recent Updates
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Nov-Prelim)
- Serbia New Business Loans (Dec)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployment and Vacancies (Dec), Monthly Household Survey (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca March 20, 2009
It is the largest drop in e-Zone IP since records have been
kept. Intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer goods output
trends are being clobbered. Each sector is worsening sequentially. Each
of the countries displayed: Germany, France, Italy, and the UK, is
experiencing sequentially worsening rates of growth for their selected
measures of IP.
It is getting worse. The EU is in the belly of the beast and
beast is recession.
Statements for Germany today confirm that things are getting worse there and that there are no signs of a turnaround. In France INSEE is now looking for Q1-2009 to be weaker than Q4-2008. In France despite the lobbying Sarkozy has done for more stimulus and relaxation within the Area, French workers are striking as if he could DO SOMETHING about the severity of the recession. They are in fact wanting him to do more to mitigate it. But France, like other EMU members, has to be mindful of the Maastricht rules that apply to budget deficits. Europeans, despite seeing this worsening in their respective economies, are amazingly blasé about doing more to mitigate the effects. Moreover, within the Group of 20 European member are far more interested in rules and regulations for the future than in dealing with current issues. If they were firemen they’d be calling in the arson investigators instead of dousing the still-raging and expanding flames. Europeans are different.
E-zone MFG IP | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
|||
E Area Detail | Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-1 |
Consumer | -1.3% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -9.2% | -5.0% | -7.0% | -5.6% | -6.2% | -4.1% | -9.9% |
C-Durables | -2.6% | -2.6% | -3.4% | -29.6% | -25.8% | -21.0% | -19.8% | -17.2% | -12.4% | -- |
C-Non-durables | -1.1% | 0.4% | -0.8% | -6.2% | -0.6% | -3.6% | -3.1% | -4.7% | -2.4% | -- |
Intermediate | -3.6% | -6.0% | -4.2% | -43.1% | -42.1% | -33.3% | -29.2% | -23.1% | -18.8% | -42.6% |
Capital | -6.0% | -2.6% | -3.2% | -38.2% | -28.6% | -27.7% | -19.3% | -20.6% | -11.4% | -41.8% |
Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
Mo/Mo | Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
||||
MFG Only | Jan 09 |
Dec 08 |
Nov 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2- Date |
Germany: | -8.5% | -4.8% | -4.2% | -51.4% | -36.4% | -33.7% | -23.1% | -20.7% | -12.2% | -55.9% |
France: IPxConstruct'n | -3.1% | -1.5% | -2.8% | -26.0% | -27.1% | -21.3% | -15.3% | -13.8% | -10.2% | -26.6% |
Italy | -0.2% | -2.7% | -3.2% | -21.9% | -28.1% | -20.7% | -22.8% | -14.6% | -13.1% | -17.2% |
Spain | -8.4% | 3.8% | -9.5% | -45.1% | -29.8% | -38.0% | -8.2% | -23.7% | -15.5% | -44.0% |
UK: EU member | -2.8% | -1.9% | -3.0% | -26.8% | -22.9% | -19.9% | -15.9% | -12.8% | -10.0% | -26.4% |