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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca March 19, 2009
The UK CBI survey for industry shows a new low at -58. Exports also are on a new low despite the weakness in sterling that should aid competitiveness.
New orders slipped to -58 in March from -56 in February. The outlook index continues to slide. At -48 it is on a new low as well. The outlook for the volume of output three-months ahead has slipped by 6 points since November while orders have slipped much more, by 20 points. Still both readings are on at their lows since 2000.
The six month changes (declines) seem to have slowed down for as orders are dropping at a slower pace. The three-month change in orders has been cycling and is well off it lows. Only the Yr/Yr measure of declines continues to move relentlessly lower, indicating deeper declines. All of this is consistent with the notion that the UK is going to leave the most severe part of its downturn behind it. It is not yet certain, but the data are consistent with such a transition in the phase of the UK cycle.
UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reported: | Mar-09 | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | 12MO Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
Total Orders | -58 | -56 | -48 | -35 | -38 | -20 | 0% | 9 | -56 | 65 |
Export Orders | -51 | -49 | -39 | -33 | -31 | -18 | 0% | 3 | -49 | 52 |
Stocks: FinGds | 31 | 27 | 27 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 100% | 27 | -2 | 29 |
Looking ahead | ||||||||||
Output Volume :Nxt 3M | -48 | -44 | -43 | -42 | -42 | -16 | 0% | 28 | -44 | 72 |
Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m | -13 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 13% | 34 | -19 | 53 |
From end 2000 |