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Economy in Brief

UK Orders Decline To New Low But Pace Of Decline Slows... Sort Of
by Robert Brusca March 19, 2009

The UK CBI survey for industry shows a new low at -58. Exports also are on a new low despite the weakness in sterling that should aid competitiveness.

New orders slipped to -58 in March from -56 in February. The outlook index continues to slide. At -48 it is on a new low as well. The outlook for the volume of output three-months ahead has slipped by 6 points since November while orders have slipped much more, by 20 points. Still both readings are on at their lows since 2000.

The six month changes (declines) seem to have slowed down for as orders are dropping at a slower pace. The three-month change in orders has been cycling and is well off it lows. Only the Yr/Yr measure of declines continues to move relentlessly lower, indicating deeper declines. All of this is consistent with the notion that the UK is going to leave the most severe part of its downturn behind it. It is not yet certain, but the data are consistent with such a transition in the phase of the UK cycle.


UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey
Reported: Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 12MO Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
Total Orders -58 -56 -48 -35 -38 -20 0% 9 -56 65
  Export Orders -51 -49 -39 -33 -31 -18 0% 3 -49 52
Stocks: FinGds 31 27 27 21 25 18 100% 27 -2 29
Looking ahead                    
Output Volume :Nxt 3M -48 -44 -43 -42 -42 -16 0% 28 -44 72
Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m -13 -12 0 0 10 18 13% 34 -19 53
From end 2000
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