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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley March 17, 2009
The German investors and analysts who participated in the ZEW
survey conducted between March 2 and March 16, were slightly less
pessimistic about expectations six months ahead and slightly more
pessimistic about current conditions. The excess of pessimists over
optimists regarding the outlook declined from 5.8% in February to 3.5%
in March, while the excess of pessimists regarding current conditions
increased from 86.2% in February to 89.4% in March.
The percent
balances on current conditions and expectations are shown in the first
chart.
The release of the January data for new orders in
manufacturing and industrial production during the period of the
survey, provided little evidence that current economic conditions were
improving. Industrial production fell 7.5% in the month of January and
new orders were down 8.0%. The year over year declines in new orders
and industrial production, shown in the second chart, are significantly
greater than those of the last recession.
The reduction from 2% to 1.5% in its key interest rate by the European Central Bank on March 5 may have played a role in the slight improvement in the participants expectations of the outlook six months ahead. And the stock market stopped declining. From March 2 to March 16, the Frankfurt Xetra Dax Index rose 9%.
GERMANY | Mar 09 | Feb 09 | Jan 09 | Dec 08 | Nov 08 | Oct O8 | Sep 08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZEW SURVEY (% balance) | |||||||
Current Conditions | -89.4 | -86.2 | -77.1 | -64.5 | -50.4 | -35.9 | -1.0 |
Expectations 6 months ahead | -3.5 | -5.8 | -31.0 | -45.2 | -53.5 | -63.0 | -41.1 |
Profit Expectations Telecommunications | -16.1 | -20.2 | -28.3 | -27.7 | -29.7 | -35.7 | -12.1 |
Profit Expectations Vehicle/Car | -70.2 | -75.3 | -90.3 | -89.3 | -94.6 | -91.7 | -51.7 |
Industrial Production (Y/Y %) | N. A. | N. A. | -19.24 | -11.58 | -7.25 | -3.53 | -1.50 |
New Orders Manufacturing (Y/Y %) | N. A. | N. A. | -35.11 | -30.5 | -26.07 | -18.80 | -9.80 |