Recent Updates
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Nov-Prelim)
- Serbia: New Business Loans (Dec)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployment and Vacancies (Dec), Monthly Household Survey (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley February 24, 2009
The latest release of the IFO survey of German entrepreneurs
engaged in industry and trade shows little change in their dismal
appraisal of the business climate. The overall business climate
indicator declined from 83.0 (2000=100) in January to 82.6 in February
to a new all time low.
Concern over current conditions outweighed a
slightly less negative appraisal of the outlook for the next six
months. The indicator for current conditions declined from 86.8 to 84.3
while that for the next six months rose from 79.5 to 80.9. All three
measures are below or, close to, their all time lows, as can be seen in
the first chart.
The indexes are based on the balance of opinions expressed by
the participants in the survey. The balance of opinion data are
published as well as the indexes, and, in the first release of the
data, only the balance of opinion data for the detailed business
sectors are given. Among the major business sectors, manufacturers are
the most pessimistic and they became more so in February, as the excess
of pessimists rose from 40.0% in January to 42.8%.
Those engaged in
construction and trade were less negative. Wholesalers, however, became
more pessimistic in February, going to -27.8% from -25.4% in January.
The climate in construction improved to -24.5% in February from -29.5%
in January. The comparable figures for retail trade were -24.3% and
26.5%. The balance of opinions for the major sectors are shown in the
second chart.
GERMANY | Feb 09 | Jan 09 | Dec 08 | Nov 08 | Oct 08 | Sep 08 | Aug 08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IFO Survey | |||||||
Business Climate (2000=100) | 82.6 | 83.0 | 82.7 | 85.9 | 90.1 | 92.7 | 94.6 |
Current Conditions (2000=100) | 84.3 | 86.8 | 88.8 | 94.8 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 103.0 |
Condition 6 Months Ahead (2000=100) | 80.9 | 79.5 | 76.9 | 77.8 | 81.4 | 86.9 | 86.8 |
Business Climate by Sector (Percent Balance) | |||||||
Total | -35.4 | -34.4 | -35.2 | -28.8 | -20.5 | -15.2 | -11.4 |
Manufacturing | -42.8 | -40.0 | -39.9 | -29.3 | -19.2 | -12.0 | -7.3 |
Construction | -24.5 | -29.5 | -30.3 | -30.1 | -27.7 | -25.2 | -26.5 |
Wholesale Trade | -27.8 | -25.4 | -26.2 | -21.8 | -15.3 | -10.9 | -5.7 |
Retail Trade | -24.3 | -26.5 | -30.4 | -33.2 | -25.5 | -24.5 | -21.5 |