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Economy in Brief

France: Insee Business Indicator Stops Falling
by Robert Brusca February 10, 2009

The Insee survey of French industry held steady at a reading of 73, the first time the index did not fall month-to-month since March 2008. The index and its trend are on their lowest reading since 1990 The likely trend reading is in the lower 3 percent of its range Orders and demand are a bottom 12% range reading on the month. Likely prices are at the 34th percentile if their range. These readings remain very weak.

French Finance minister Christine Lagarde predicts 1.2-point drop in GDP For 4Q 2008. She said that official figures would very probably show the French economy contracted by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008. It’s obviously too soon to try to build a positive outlook from the flattening in the INSEE index.

INSEE Industry Survey
          Since Jan 1990 Since Jan 1990
  Jan
09
Dec
08
Nov
08
Oct
08
Percentile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Climate 73 73 79 87 0.0 221 123 73 50 101
Production
  Recent Trend -74 -72 -68 -65 0.0 222 44 -74 118 -7
  Likely trend -33 -35 -26 -19 3.1 221 30 -35 65 5
Orders/Demand
  Orders&Demand -51 -56 -43 -31 12.6 213 25 -62 87 -15
  FgnOrders&Demand -50 -55 -47 -26 9.0 212 31 -58 89 -11
Prices
Likely Sales Price Trend -7 -9 -1 9 34.0 166 24 -23 47 1
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