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Economy in Brief

IP Sectors All Dropping Fast 
by Robert Brusca February 5, 2009

German IP is dropping fast with the headline off by 4.6% in December following a November decline of 3.8%. In the fourth quarter, German IP is falling at a 24.6% annual rate. The steel industry reports orders falling faster than any time since WWII. Yr/Yr the drop in overall output is a very substantial minus 12%; Yr/Yr weakness permeates sectors.

The German consumer sector is not lively but since it never went anywhere it is not surprising it is now falling by the least down at a -5.8% annual rate over three months and by -5.3% Yr/Yr. Capital goods output is declining at an increasingly precipitous pace, the same is true for intermediate goods output. Construction has continued to rise in the month and is up over three-months at a faster pace than it is up over six months. Still manufacturing and, as we have previously seen, manufacturing orders are enormously weak.


German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin
Real and SA % M/M % Saar
  Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 3-MO 6-Mo 12-Mo YrAgo QTR-2-Date
Total Orders -6.9% -5.3% -6.3% -53.5% -31.8% -27.7% 10.6% -49.6%
Foreign -9.4% -3.7% -6.3% -55.4% -33.2% -31.7% 13.5% -53.5%
Domestic -4.3% -7.0% -6.4% -51.8% -30.6% -23.4% 7.7% -45.3%
Real Sector Sales
MFG/Mining -6.2% -4.4% -0.1% -35.5% -19.7% -13.2% 5.1% -23.2%
Consumer 2.7% -2.3% -0.1% 1.2% 0.6% -2.9% 2.0% -3.4%
Cons Durables -3.6% -3.6% -1.1% -28.6% -15.5% -13.0% 0.7% -23.8%
Cons Non-Durable 3.9% -2.0% 0.1% 8.0% 3.9% -0.8% 2.3% 1.2%
Capital Goods -8.7% -4.7% 1.0% -40.5% -22.9% -14.9% 7.9% -24.4%
Intermediate Goods -8.0% -5.4% -1.3% -45.4% -26.1% -16.9% 3.5% -31.1%
All MFG-Sales -6.0% -4.2% 0.0% -34.2% -18.9% -12.7% 4.6% -22.2%
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