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Economy in Brief

EMU Services PMI's Slow Descent Signal In January
by Robert Brusca February 4, 2009

The EMU Services PMIs from Market show continued weakness in EMU and UK service sectors but not accelerating weakness.

The signal for the Zone is just one month up from its low. Country indices are low in their respective ranges, but generally they are not on their bottoms. Germany for example saw its service sector slip further this month; it now lies in the bottom 10 percentile of its range. Italy and the UK each saw some of their weakness dissipate yet they remain the worst tow countries with the lowest services diffusion readings in this grouping. . The EU Commission’s measures on services and confidence are generally a bit weaker and are at or nearer all time lows compared to the Market treatment for services.

The bounce in services in Europe is echoed by the bounce in the US non-MFG ISM, the closest US measure to these European service sector indices. The US ISM is in the bottom 23% of its range. Europe and the US seem to be passing though this cycle with remarkably similar impacts on their respective goods and services sectors.


NTC Services Indices for EU/EMU
  Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
Euro-13 42.16 42.06 42.47 42.23 44.89 47.77 0.5%
Germany 45.20 46.57 45.14 45.64 47.81 50.40 10.7%
France 42.56 40.57 46.17 43.10 45.84 49.27 8.0%
Italy 41.10 40.30 39.46 40.29 44.07 46.03 7.0%
Spain 31.84 32.10 28.23 30.72 33.24 37.17 11.1%
Ireland 33.94 34.14 32.60 33.56 36.23 40.52 3.7%
EU only
UK (CIPs) 42.48 40.21 40.06 40.92 43.38 46.76 11.8%
  US NONFMG ISM 42.90 40.10 37.40 40.13 44.23 47.21 22.9%
EU Commission Indices for EU and EMU
EU Index Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
EU Services -28 -23 -18 -28.67 -24.67 -19.67 0.0%
EMU Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo Percentile
Services -22 -17 -12 -17.00 -9.50 -2.58 0.0%
Cons Confidence -31 -30 -25 -28.67 -24.67 -8.28 0.0%
Consumer confidence by country
Germany-Ccon -27 -22 -15 -21.33 -15.67 -9.50 0.0%
France-Ccon -35 -34 -29 -32.67 -29.50 -23.75 0.0%
Ital-Ccon -26 -30 -26 -27.33 -25.17 -24.17 12.5%
Spain-Ccon -44 -46 -44 -44.67 -42.33 -35.58 4.2%
UK-Ccon -35 -29 -27 -30.33 -27.50 -21.50 0.0%
percentile is over range since May 2000
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