Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Evidence that the recession is truly global appears daily. Currently it is Brazil's turn to report depressing news. Yesterday, Brazil reported a 21.67% decline in exports in January after a 6.37% decline in December.Today Brazil reported that industrial production fell 12.4% in December after a 7.2% decline in November. Exports have been trending down since mid year with the sharp decline in commodity prices and are now 26.7% below January 2008. The decline in industrial production, which excludes price changes, has been less severe but it is now 14.45% below December 2007. The year to year percent changes in exports and industrial production are shown in the first chart.
Although data on employment in manufacturing and retail trade are not available for December or January, both series appear to have peaked in November as shown in the second chart.
In response to the decline in activity, COPOM, Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee relaxed its vigilance on inflation and reduced its target interest rate by 100 basis points to 12.75% on January 21, 2009. As a result of cautious monetary and fiscal policies over the past several years Brazil may be better able to weather the current downturn than it has been in confronting past downturns. Inflation has moderated, the fiscal balance improved, foreign debt reduced and foreign reserves at their all time high. These data can be found under Brazil in EMERGELA database.
BRAZIL | Jan 09 | Dec 08 | Nov 08 | Oct 08 | Sep 08 | Aug 08 | July 08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Industrial Production (2002=100) | -- | 105.02 | 119.86 | 129.11 | 130.94 | 129.10 | 130.84 |
Month to Month % Change (SA) | -- | -12.38 | -7.16 | -1.40 | 1.43 | -1.33 | 1.22 |
Exports (Mil US$) | 11262 | 14377 | 15335 | 17069 | 18809.1 | 17616 | 18292 |
Month to Month % Change (SA) | -21.67 | -6.37 | -10.04 | -9.24 | 6.76 | -3.70 | 0.45 |