Recent Updates
- US: Advance Durable Goods (Dec)
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Nov-Prelim)
- Serbia: New Business Loans (Dec)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployment and Vacancies (Dec), Monthly Household
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley January 13, 2009
The British Chamber of Commerce's economic survey conducted in
the fourth quarter of 2008 showed an economy losing ground at an
alarming rate. The survey collects the opinions of manufacturers and
service providers on the state of a wide variety of key business
indicators--domestic and export sales, domestic and export orders,
prices, employment, capacity utilization and cash flow--and on their
confidence in future sales, capital expenditure plans and
profitability. The results are expressed in percent balances--the
percent of respondents reporting an increase less the percent reporting
a decrease. The responses in the fourth quarter were almost universally
negative and many at record lows.
The table below shows the deterioration in domestic and export sales, employment expectations, plans for expansion and profitability expectations since mid 2007 when the sub prime mortgage crisis in the United States exposed the fragility of the financial system, not only in the U. S. but worldwide. In the year and a half since then, the balance of opinion of manufacturers regarding their domestic sales, for example, has gone from +37% to -38%.
The three charts put the recent declines in domestic sales,
expectations of employment and of profitability in perspective. The
first shows that fourth quarter domestic sales of manufacturers and
service providers were about as low as they were in recession of the
early 90's. Expectations of employment in the fourth quarter, shown in
the second chart, were below those of the earlier recession and the
lowest so far recorded. The fourth quarter balances for expectations of
profitability, -39% and -34%, respectively for manufacturers and
service providers, shown in the third chart, compare with balances of
-6% and 1%, respectively, in the recession of the early 90's.
BRITISH CHAMBER OF COMMERCE SURVEY (% Balance) | Q4 08 | Q3 08 | Q2 08 | Q1 08 | Q4 07 | Q3 07 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Sales -- Manufacturing | -38 | -13 | -3 | 12 | 32 | 37 |
Domestic Sales -- Services | -31 | -7 | -2 | 17 | 28 | 29 |
Export Sales -- Manufacturing | -12 | -3 | 28 | 16 | 22 | 31 |
Export Sales -- Services | -9 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 15 | 25 |
Employment Expectations (3 mo ahead) -- Mfg | -17 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
Employment Expectations (3 mo ahead) -- Services | -22 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Plans for Expansion -- Manufacturing | -22 | -4 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 33 |
Plans for Expansion -- Services | -27 | -2 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 17 |
Profitability Expectations (12 mo ahead) -- Mfg | -38 | -11 | 5 | 27 | 39 | 35 |
Profitability Expectations (12 mo ahead) -- Services | -34 | -12 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 47 |