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Economy in Brief

EMU is on an All-time Low for Sentiment  Manufacturing and Services Plunge
by Robert Brusca January 8, 2009

The table above summaries the overall EU and sector sentiment gauges. In the bottom panel the EMU and country indices are presented. The blue percentile panel presents the raw readings as a percentage in their all range of values. Overall EU and EMU sentiment are on all time lows: the zero percentile. Most large EU countries are on their worst ever reading as well – or close to it (France).

The percentage drops in the sentiment reading across countries are still huge; for EMU as a single entity the drop is 10% in December.

In addition all major sectors are their lows (since 1990) for the EU. We plot the MFG sector and service sector indices above. Their paths tell a clear story of how weak things are and that the path lower still appears to have further downside. There is no deceleration in the drop or any sense of a bounce.





EU Sectors and Country level Overall Sentiment
EU Dec
08
Nov
08
Oct
08
Sep
08
%tile Rank Max Min Range Mean R-SQ
w/Overall
Overall 63.5 70.5 77.2 84.9 0.0 220 116 64 53 99 1.00
Industrial -32 -25 -19 -13 0.0 220 7 -32 39 -7 0.87
Consumer Confid -28 -24 -23 -19 0.0 220 2 -28 30 -11 0.84
Retail -24 -18 -16 -13 0.0 220 6 -24 30 -6 0.55
Construction -32 -29 -25 -20 22.2 185 3 -42 45 -17 0.41
Services -23 -18 -10 -4 0.0 145 32 -23 55 16 0.84
    % m/m   Dec
08
Based on Level Level  
EMU -10.4% -6.4% -8.6% 67.1 0.0 220 117 67 50 99 0.95
Germany -6.4% -7.1% -5.1% 77.0 0.0 220 121 77 44 99 0.64
France -9.8% -1.6% -8.6% 75.4 7.9 218 119 72 47 99 0.79
Italy -12.2% -1.5% -6.9% 71.0 0.0 220 121 71 50 99 0.79
Spain -10.0% -4.2% -5.0% 57.0 0.0 220 118 57 61 99 0.65
Memo: UK -1.0% -12.5% -7.5% 61.0 0.0 220 118 61 57 99 0.48
Since 1990 except Services (Oct 1996) 247 -Count Services: 145 -Count      
Sentiment is an index, sector readings are net balance diffusion measures
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